摘要
人口增长和土地开发的因果关系存在争论,是人口增长推动新的土地开发,还是土地开发引起人口增加?通过构建联立方程模型,运用二阶段最小二乘法对35个大中城市进行分类检验。全样本模型显示人口系数为0.464,土地系数不显著,表明人口增长引起土地开发,总体上采用的是"被动模式"。而分类结果显示,14个发达城市的人口参数为0.170,土地参数不显著,表明人口增长带动土地开发,采用的也是"被动模式"。而21个发展中城市的人口参数不显著,而土地参数为0.249,表明土地开发引起人口增长,是"主动模式"。城镇化依据经济水平呈现不同的发展模式,其动力机制与路径也不相同。
There is a debate about the causal relationship between population growth and land development： whether population growth drives land development or land development causes population growth？ Through the building of a simultaneous equation model,the paper does a partition test on35 large to medium sized cities,utilizing the two-stage-least square method. Results of the full sample show that the population coefficient rate is 0. 464,while the land coefficient is not significant,indicating that the population growth drives the land development,which is the conservative mode. Classification results demonstrate that the population parameter of 14 developed cities is 0. 170 while the land parameter is not significant,indicating that the population growth drives the land development,which is also the conservative mode. The population parameter of 21 developing cities is not significant,while the land parameter is 0. 249,indicating that the land development causes the population growth,which is the aggressive mode. Urbanization displays different development models,dynamic mechanism and path according to the economic levels.
出处
《浙江工业大学学报（社会科学版）》
2017年第3期299-304,共6页
Journal of Zhejiang University of Technology：Social Sciences
基金
国家社会科学基金一般项目(16BJL053)
关键词
阶段性
城镇化
因果关系
模式
stage
urbanization
causal relationship
model
作者简介
张娟锋（1979-）,男,河南温县人,副教授,博士,从事土地管制与政策研究;
赵爽爽（1993-）,女,浙江余杭人,硕士研究生,从事土地管制与政策研究.
