摘要
本研究旨在评估6个经典的肉牛胃肠道甲烷排放估算模型的预测精度,分析影响模型预测精度的原因。在湖南望城肉牛养殖场选用17头体况良好的湘中黑牛,分两阶段测定了肉牛体重、营养组分采食量及胃肠道甲烷排放量。本研究选择6个经典的肉牛胃肠道甲烷排放估算模型,包括:以干物质采食量(DMI)为核心参数的估算模型1[CH4(MJ·d^(-1))=1.246×DMI(kg·d^(-1))+0.996]和模型2[CH4(MJ·d^(-1))=-2.07+2.636×DMI(kg·d^(-1))-0.105×DMI2(kg·d^(-1))];以纤维摄入量为核心参数的估算模型3[CH4(MJ·d^(-1))=5.58+0.848×NDF(kg·d^(-1))]和模型4[CH4(MJ·d^(-1))=3.41+0.520×DMI(kg·d^(-1))-0.996×ADF(kg·d^(-1))+1.15×NDF(kg·d^(-1))];以总能摄入量为核心参数的估算模型5[CH4(MJ·d^(-1))=0.065×GEI(MJ·d^(-1))]和模型6[CH4(MJ·d^(-1))=0.081×GEI(MJ·d^(-1))-0.024]。利用预测误差均方(Mean squared prediction error,MSPE)和一致性相关系数(Consistent correlation coefficient,CCC)两种分析方法评估6个估算模型预测肉牛胃肠道甲烷排放量的精度以及影响模型估算精度的原因。结果表明,模型5(CCC=0.86)的估测精度最高,模型1(CCC=0.74)和6(CCC=0.79)次之,模型2(CCC=0.66)、3(CCC=0.22)和4(CCC=0.54)的估算精度最低;模型1和2的估算误差主要来自于整体偏差的偏离(分别为48.8%和70.3%);模型3的估算误差主要来自于回归斜率的偏离(47.6%);模型4的偏差主要来自于整体偏差(29.2%)和回归斜率偏离(28.6%)。IPCC(2006)Tier2推荐的以总能GEI为单一变量的模型5是本试验中6个估算公式预测精度最高的模型。
This study was conducted to evaluate the accuracy of 6classic models to predict the enteric methane emissions in beef cattle and analyze the factors affecting predictive accuracy of models.Seventeen Xiangzhong Black cattle were selected in the Hunan Wangcheng beef farm,to measure body weight,dry matter and nutrients intake,enteric methane emissions in two stages.The selected 6classic models included：equations developed by dry matter intake（DMI）,such as Model 1[CH4（MJ·d-1）=1.246× DMI（kg·d-1）＋0.996]and Model 2[CH4（MJ·d-1）=-2.07 ＋ 2.636 × DMI（kg·d-1）-0.105 × DMI2（kg·d-1）];equations developed by fiber intake,such as Model 3 [CH4（MJ·d-1）= 5.58 ＋ 0.848 × NDF（kg·d-1）]and Model 4[CH4（MJ·d-1）=3.41＋0.520×DMI（kg·d-1）-0.996×ADF（kg·d-1）＋1.15×NDF（kg·d-1）];equations developed by gross energy intake（GEI）,such as Model 5 [CH4（MJ·d-1）=0.065×GEI（MJ·d-1）]and Model 6 [CH4（MJ·d-1）=0.081×GEI（MJ·d-1）-0.024].Mean Squared Prediction Error（MSPE）and Consistent Correlation Coefficient（CCC）methods were employed to evaluate the prediction accuracy,and factors influencing the accuracy were also discussed.The result showed that：Model 5（CCC=0.86）had the highest prediction accuracy among 6models,next for Model 1（CCC=0.74）and 6（CCC=0.79）,the lowest for Model 2（CCC=0.66）,3（CCC=0.22）and 4（CCC=0.54）.Model 1and 2had overall bias of48.8% and 70.3%,respectively.Model 3had greatest deviation of regression slope from unity（47.6%）,while Model 4had 28.6% deviation of regression slope from unity and 29.2%overall bias.The current results indicate that Model 5developed by GEI based on world-wide data by IPCC（2006）Tier 2is the most accurate model to predict the enteric methane emissions in beef cattle.
出处
《畜牧兽医学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第4期690-698,共9页
ACTA VETERINARIA ET ZOOTECHNICA SINICA
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(31561143009
31472133)
国家科技计划项目(2016YFD0500504)
湖南省科技计划项目(2015WK3043)
中国科学院青年促进会项目
关键词
甲烷
预测误差均方
一致性相关系数
肉牛
methane
Mean Squared Prediction Error
Consistent Correlation Coefficient
beefcattle
作者简介
毛宏祥（1991-），男，湖北襄阳人，硕士生，主要从事反刍家畜营养研究，E—mail：HongXiangmao@126.com.
通信作者：高凤仙，教授，硕士生导师，E—mail：gaofx1964@163．com；
王敏，副研究员，E—mail：mwang@isa．ac．cn
