摘要
旅客出行时间偏好的选择,对于合理分配高速铁路运输能力、提高综合收益、满足旅客运输需求具有重要意义。建立高速铁路旅客的出行时间选择行为多项Logit模型,确定影响旅客出行时间选择行为的主要影响因素,在此基础上运用贝叶斯MCMC算法、极大似然法和最小二乘法对模型进行求解。利用沪宁高速铁路客票数据对旅客出行时间选择进行实例分析,结果表明,周五和周日出行的旅客偏向于晚间出行,当日购票的旅客偏向于选择午间和晚间出行,而运用贝叶斯MCMC算法得到的参数精度更高。
The choice of passengers＇ travel time preference is of great significance on reasonably distributing transport capacity of high-speed railways, increasing comprehensive benefits and satisfying passengers＇ transport demand. In this paper, a multinomial Logit model for high-speed railway passengers＇ travel time choice is established to determine the main factors influencing passengers＇ travel time choice behavior. Based on above, the model is solved by using Bayes MCMC algorithm, maximum likelihood method and least squares method. Taking the ticket data of Shanghai-Nanjing high-speed railway as an example, this paper makes empirical analysis on passengers＇ travel time choice. The result shows the passengers who travel on Friday and Sunday prefer to travel at night, and the passengers who buy ticket on the day prefer to travel at noon and night. More high-precise parameters can be achieved by using Bayes MCMC Algorithm.
出处
《铁道运输与经济》
北大核心
2017年第1期55-60,共6页
Railway Transport and Economy
基金
国家自然科学基金(U1434207)
中国铁路总公司科技研究开发计划课题(2015X006-G)
