摘要
基于黑河流域及周边地区17个气象站1951—2014年逐日气象资料,依靠处理定性概念与定量描述不确定性转换的云模型对潜在蒸散量(ET_0)及其影响因子的不确定性进行研究,同时采用通径分析对ET_0的影响因子进行分析。结果表明:近60年黑河流域年均ET_0呈较小幅度增长趋势;ET_0在时间尺度上的熵值和超熵比空间尺度小,说明ET_0的时间变化较为连续,空间分布较为模糊、随机;气象因子的熵值和超熵变化范围较小,说明气象因子的空间分布较为均匀、稳定,熵值、超熵值的空间分布和均值的空间分布差异较大;ET_0空间分布总体表现为由南向北递增,与日照时数、风速和气温的空间分布规律相似,与相对湿度相反;ET_0的主要影响因素为相对湿度,其次为风速和气温;其中直接作用中风速>相对湿度>气温,间接作用中相对湿度>气温>风速,气温和相对湿度通过风速对ET_0的负向作用较为明显。
Using the daily data during 1951-2014 from 17 meteorological stations in Heihe River watershed and the surrounding areas,uncertainty analysis of potential evapotranspiration（ ET0）and its influencing factors were studied based on cloud model,which is a mathematical representation of a qualitative concept and integrates the fuzziness and randomness of a qualitative concept in a unified way. Meanwhile,the causes of ET0 change were manifested by path analysis. The results showed that annual variation in ET0 had a fluctuating increase tendency. The homogeneity and stability of ET0 were worse in space than in time,indicating that the temporal distribution of ET0 was more uniform and stable. Further analysis found that entropy（ En） and hyper entropy（ He） of meteorological elements had smaller extents of variation,indicating that the spatial distributions of meteorological elements were uniform and stable. However,the spatial distribution of Enand Hediffered greatly with the spatial distribution of expected value（ Ex）. Spatially,the ET0 increased from the south of Heihe River to the north; this pattern was similar to mean temperature,sunshine hours and wind speed,and was opposite to relative humidity. Relative humidity was the main influencing factor of ET0,followed by wind speed and temperature. The wind speed and relative humidity had the largest direct effect on the ET0,while the relative humidity and mean temperature had the largest indirect effect on the ET0. The negative effect of air temperature and relative humidity on ET0 by wind speed was obvious.
出处
《生态学杂志》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第1期172-180,共9页
Chinese Journal of Ecology
基金
国家自然基金项目(51409048)
农业行业专项项目(201403048-8)
水利部公益性行业科研专项项目(201301040)
甘肃农业大学工学院青年教师科技创新基金项目(GXY 2013-05)资助
关键词
时空分异
潜在蒸散量
云模型
通径分析
黑河流域
temporal-spatial differentiation
potential evapotranspiration（ET0）
cloud model
path analysis
Heihe Rive
作者简介
汪精海，男，1981年生，硕士，从事节水灌溉理论与技术研究。E—mail：wangjh@gsau．edu．cn
通汛作者E—mail：qigp@gsau．edu．cn
