摘要
The objective of this article is to analyze the impacts that changes in society may have on high-speed rail （HSR） activity and development. We are now in a transitional period between the second and the third industrial revolutions, as described by Rifkin [1 ]. The new revolution emerged from beneath the surface at least 15 years ago, and will take at least another 15 years to be fully fledged. Such a long transitional period is the result of many worldwide evolutions initiated by two main causes-the digital revolution and global climate warming-and we must confess to our inability to forecast their final outcomes. Thus, we have a strong motivation to try to understand what is at stake and to unravel the various trends and breaks that are presently active in the open as well as under cover. No field of activity will be shielded from the coming tsunami of change. The railway community is naturally involved in this irresist- ible move. Will HSR benefit or suffer from it？ What attitude should we adopt in order to turn threats into opportunities？
本文旨在分析社会变革对高速铁路(HSR)的运营与发展可能产生的影响。正如Rifkin[1]所描述的那样,我们现在正处于第二次和第三次工业革命的过渡阶段。这场新革命至少始于15年前,并且至少还需要15年才能完全成熟。这样一个漫长过渡期的产生是多次世界变革的结果,变革的产生主要有两大原因:数字革命与全球变暖。我们必须承认我们无法预测其最终结果。因此,我们强烈希望能够明确其中的风险因素并试图揭开目前已显露的或潜在的多种可能的趋势及重大变化。
