摘要
本研究在收集整理粮食集市价格和消费物价月度数据的基础上，利用均衡修正模型对中国1987-1999年粮价变动与通货膨胀关系进行协整分析，有很强的经验证据，说明通货膨胀与市场粮价存在长期均衡关系，因果关系走向通货膨胀影响粮价变动，而不是粮价上涨导致通货膨胀，另外，研究还发现，我国长期真实粮价基本不变，说明传统认为粮食相对紧缺度会不断上升的观点缺乏依据。然而，粮价对通货膨胀冲击做出拔应时，通常会发生过度或超量调节。
On the basis of collection and compilation of monthly data of mar- ket grain prices and consumer price index,this study investigates the relationship of co-integration between grain prices and inflation using error correction model.Strong evidence has been found that there are long run relationships between grain prices and inflation.The direction of causality for the relationships is from inflation to grain prices, rather than the reverse.On the other hand,long term real grain prices have roughly remained unchanged,questioning the traditional belief that the relative scarcity of grain should be continuously increasing.When grain prices respond to the shock of inflation, they nevertheless tend to overshoot.
出处
《经济学（季刊）》
2002年第4期821-836,共16页
China Economic Quarterly
