摘要
基于北方6省市和61个市县1981—2012年冬小麦产量和逐日气象资料,有效分离冬小麦减产率,通过典型干旱年份冬小麦减产率与水分亏缺距平指数、降水距平百分率的相关分析筛选致灾因子;基于减产率分级,利用冬小麦不同生育期减产率与致灾因子数学模型构建干旱等级指标;综合冬小麦干旱等级的强度及其风险概率,进行冬小麦生育期干旱风险评估。结果表明：冬小麦减产率与水分亏缺距平指数的相关系数达0.355-0.656,明显大于降水距平百分率,在各生育阶段内均通过0.05的显著性检验,确定为干旱致灾因子;在冬小麦不同生育期内,通过冬小麦减产率-致灾因子线性模型得到的轻、中、重、特重干旱等级指标,以0.297、0.351、0.214、0.159、0.316、0.547、0.149分别为苗期、越冬期、返青期、拔节期、抽穗期、成熟期和全生育期发生干旱的临界值;不同生育期冬小麦干旱风险分布形式存在一定地区差异,这与地区降水量对冬小麦需水的满足情况相符,其中,河北南部和山东西北部在各生育期均属于冬小麦干旱的高危险性地区。
Using yield data and meteorological data from 1981—2012 in north China,an appropriate method was selected to fit tendency yield for winter wheat in each province,and the key factor was selected by comparing yield reduction rate with water deficit anomaly index and precipitation anomaly percentage in typical drought years.Based on grade criteria of yield reduction rate,drought damage index was calculated upon the model of yield reduction rate and key factor during different period. Risk assessment model was constructed considering drought grade and its risk probability. The drought risk assessment at growth period of winter wheat was conducted considering drought grade and its risk probability. The results indicated that the correlation coefficient between yield reduction rate and water deficit anomaly index varied from 0. 355 to 0. 656 at the level of P 0. 05,being greater than that between yield reduction rate and precipitation anomaly percentage. This finding indicated that water deficit anomaly index was appropriate to be selected as the key factor for drought. The mathematical relationship of yield reduction rate and water deficit anomaly index differed during different growth period,and the critical value determining drought occurrence was 0. 297,0. 351,0. 214,0. 159,0. 316,0. 547 and 0. 149 for seedling stage,wintering stage,regreening stage,jointing stage,heading stage,maturation stage and whole growth stage,respectively. Drought damage risk for winter wheat differed during different period that matched well with supplement of precipitation and water requirement in region. Overall,high drought risk for winter wheat was in southern Hebei and northwest Shandong during each period.
出处
《干旱地区农业研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第4期274-280,286,共8页
Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas
基金
国家自然科学基金(41101517)
国家气象中心青年基金(Q201412)
关键词
冬小麦
干旱
作物水分亏缺距平指数
风险
winter wheat
drought
water deficit anomaly index
drought risk
作者简介
张蕾（1987-），男，江苏南通人，硕士，主要从事农业气象灾害风险分析与评估研究。E-mail：lei_z2011@163．com.
