摘要
为获得更符合企业实际的在役安全阀失效率,以解决基于风险的检测(RBI)分析时使用数据库数据存在的不匹配问题,提出一种基于贝叶斯估计的失效率计算方法。以海上平台可靠性数据手册(OREDA)数据库信息作为安全阀失效率先验信息,以某石化企业聚丙烯装置中相似工况下的安全阀检维修记录为企业样本信息,得到安全阀失效率的贝叶斯估计;再应用RBI确定该工况下安全阀的检验周期,结合石化企业运行经验及检验机构评估报告对其进行验证。结果表明,基于贝叶斯估计的失效率计算方法具有较高的可行性,其获取的失效率数据确定的安全阀检验周期具有较好的可信度,可为同类产品检验周期的评估提供参考。
In order to obtain a more accurate in-service safety valve failure rate, as a means of solving the problems of using database data on Risk Based Inspection （RBI） analysis ,a failure rate calculation meth- od which is based on Bayesian estimation is presented. Information from the Offshore Reliability Data Handbook（OREDA） is used to determine the prior safety valve failure rate, and safety valve inspection and maintenance records under similar conditions in a polypropylene plant of a petrochemical facility as the industrial sample information, are used to calculate the safety valve failure rate of Bayesian estimation. Then the RBI method is used to determine the safety valve inspection cycle under similar conditions, which is verified by the petrochemical industrial operational experience and inspection agency assessment report. The results show that the method has high reliability in obtaining the failure rate data, which is used to determine a more credible safety valve inspection cycle , and can provide a reference for similar product inspection cycle assessments.
出处
《压力容器》
2016年第4期52-58,共7页
Pressure Vessel Technology
基金
浙江省公益技术重点项目(2014C23001)
浙江省公益技术项目(2016C33SA100058)
关键词
安全阀
贝叶斯估计
检验周期
RBI
风险检测
失效率
safety valve
Bayesian estimation
inspection cycle
RBI
risk based inspection
failure rate
作者简介
刘强（1990-），男，主要从事安全阀可靠性方面的研究工作，通信地址：310032浙江省杭州市潮王路18号浙江工业大学化工机械设计研究所，E—mail：zjutli．uqiang@163．com。
通讯作者：包士毅（1973-），男，副教授，主要从事生产系统安全方面的研究工作，通信地址：310032浙江省杭州市潮王路18号浙江工业大学化工机械设计研究所工作，E-mail：bsy@zjut．edu．cn.
