摘要
干旱是制约黄淮海地区夏玉米产量稳定的主要农业气象灾害,明确粮食主产区农业干旱发生的演变规律,对于采取有效的防灾减灾对策意义重大。基于作物水分亏缺指数和夏玉米干旱等级指标,分析了黄淮海地区近40a夏玉米生长季干旱的时空变化规律。结果表明:夏玉米各生育阶段间比较,播种-出苗期水分亏缺指数和干旱发生概率最大。除播种-出苗期外,随着干旱等级的升高,干旱发生概率逐渐降低,但播种-出苗期则以特旱等级发生概率最大;各阶段水分亏缺指数无明显的时间变化趋势,但年际间波动较大,特别是夏玉米生长中后期,1997年是近40a干旱发生最为严重的年份,不仅干旱持续时间长,且发生范围也最大;水分亏缺指数空间分布范围在年代际间存在"缩小-增大-缩小"的变化规律,从各年代干旱等级及其分布范围看,1991-2000年干旱最严重,2001-2010年有所减轻。夏玉米各阶段水分亏缺指数及各等级干旱发生概率基本呈现为由东南向西北逐渐增大的变化趋势,河北大部、河南西部和北部以及山东的中西部地区是各阶段干旱概率的高值区。由于年际间的波动在增大,黄淮海地区夏玉米生长中后期极端干旱灾害发生的可能性较大,北部及西部地区更是干旱灾害的高发区,生产中仍需加强对干旱灾害的预测预报及防御工作。
Drought is the main agro - meteorological disaster to restrict the summer maize production in the Huang - Huai - Hai area. It is of great important to clarify the spatiotemporal distribution law of agricultural drought in main food production area for the prevention and reduction of disasters. Based on the crop water deficit index （CWDI） and drought grade index, the spatiotemporal change law of drought during the summer maize growing season in past 40 years was analyzed. Results show that, the CWDI and probability of drought are the largest at the sowing - There was no significant temporal trend for CWDI at each stage, but there are large fluctuations between years, es-pecially at the mid - late stages. Drought is most serious in 1997 in the recent 40 years with long time duration and widely affected areas. Spatial distribution range of CWDI varies with the law of reduction - enlargement - reduction from 1971 -1980 to 2001 -2010. The drought was the most serious in 1991 -2000 and the lightest in 2001 - 2010. From the spatial distribution, CWDI and drought grade basically present the gradually increasing trend from east to west and from south to north. The most part of Hebei, the north and west parts of Henan and mid - west of Shandong were the areas with high probability of drought. Due to the increasing fluctuations between years, extreme drought events would occur in a larger probability during the mid - late season of summer maize. It is strongly ad- vised to strengthen the prediction and prevention of drought, especially in the north and west parts of Huang - Huai - Hai area.
出处
《自然灾害学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第2期1-14,共14页
Journal of Natural Disasters
基金
国家科技支撑计划项目(2012BAD20B04)
公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201006041)
河南省重大科技专项(121100110900)~~
关键词
干旱
水分亏缺指数
夏玉米
时空特征
黄淮海地区
drought
crop water deficit index （CWDI）
summer maize
spatiotemporal characteristics
Huang-Huai-Hai area
作者简介
薛昌颖（1979-），女，高级工程师，博士，主要从事农业气象灾害及作物生长模型等方面的研究．E-mail：xuecy9@163．com.
