摘要
选取中国30个省份2000-2011年的面板数据,使用XTtobit、FE和RE面板模型的估计方法,分析城镇化发展指标是否对农业贸易开放度产生了影响。从计量结果来看,城镇化率对农业贸易开放度的影响系数在0.010.02之间波动,且在1%和5%的水平上显著,城镇化过程的不断深入将通过粮食和农产品供求关系的改变影响着农业贸易开放度;人口城镇化水平,人均GDP和第三产业占比均对农业对外开放度存在着正相关关系,具有显著的影响作用。因此积极推进城镇化进程,大力发展第三产业,加强农业对外开放的顶层设计都将加速推动中国农业的外向程度和分工水平。
Based on panel data of China's 30 provinces from 2000 to 2011,this paper uses estimation of Xttobit,FE and RE panel model to analyze whether urbanization index has an impact on agricultural trade openness or not.The result shows that the influencing coefficient of urbanization rate on agricultural trade openness fluctuates between 0.01 and 0.02 and becomes obvious in 1%and 5%significance level.The deepening of the urbanization process will affect the agricultural trade openness through the change of relationship between food and agricultural products supply and demand.The factors include population urbanization level,per capita GDP and the third industry proportion also have significant impact on agricultural trade openness.Therefore,several measures such as promoting the urbanization process,developing the third industry and strengthening the top-level design will accelerate the degree and level of agricultural openness in China.
出处
《华中农业大学学报（社会科学版）》
CSSCI
2016年第3期68-73,134,共6页
Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition)
基金
国家自然科学基金项目"农业基础设施供给绩效评价:基于‘双QE’框架"(71273086)
湖南省社会科学重大项目"加快推进湖南农业现代化与农村经济组织及模式创新研究"(11WTA04)
作者简介
李立辉（1979-），女，讲师，博士研究生；研究方向：粮食经济，农村发展。
通讯作者：曾福生（1964-），男，教授，博士；研究方向：农业经济理论与政策。
