摘要
分析2010—2011赛季至2014—2015赛季中职篮常规赛1 502场和季后赛132场的比赛数据,以每100次控球权的比赛绩效表现为基础,运用多元线性回归方法对总体绩效指标进攻效率和防守效率建立一种回归模型,对其分解指标有效投篮命中率、失误率、进攻篮板率和罚球率建立第二种回归模型,分别研究其在中职篮比赛中对胜率的作用。结果显示:中职篮常规赛进攻效率与防守效率基本保持平衡,而在季后赛阶段进攻对比赛结果影响的重要性远大于防守,进攻主导比赛胜负。中职篮常规赛中,"四因素"影响比赛结果的重要性顺序为有效投篮命中率、失误率、进攻篮板率、罚球率;季后赛中,"四因素"影响比赛结果的重要性顺序为进攻篮板率、失误率、有效投篮命中率、罚球率。
Based on the statistics data of 1 502 regular season games and 132 playoff games in the past 5seasons of CBA,using multivariate linear regression method,analyzing the comprehensive metrics about offensive ratings and defensive ratings to establish one kind of model;analyzing the breakdown index including effective field goal percentage,turnovers per possession,offensive rebounding percentage and free throw rate to build another model.Then studying the effect on winning percentage of CBA matches,helping coaches and plyers to grasp the rules and key factors to win in matches.The results show that offensive and defensive efficiency are basically the same in CBA regular season.but in the playoffs,offense is much more important than the defense,it is the key to winning the game.In CBA regular season,the order of importance of the four factor is：effective field goal percentage,turnovers per possession,offensive rebounding percentage,free throw rate;in the playoffs,the order is：offensive rebounding percentage,turnovers per possession,effective field goal percentage,free throw rate.
出处
《中国体育科技》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第2期129-134,共6页
China Sport Science and Technology
关键词
中职篮
攻防效率
绩效表现
CBA
offensive and defensive ratings
performance
作者简介
张学领（1973-），男，河南项城人，副教授，博士，硕士研究生导师，主要研究方向为篮球教学和训练，Tel：（0371）63631206，Pmail：zhangXuelingl218@126．com。
