摘要
目的探讨我国卫生总费用的影响因素,并进行实证分析。方法在国内外文献研读的基础上,结合我国国情,充分考虑经济体制、社会结构、政策环境等方面对卫生费用增长的影响,选取我国人均卫生费用作为解释变量,人均国内生产总值(GDP)、慢性病患病率、社会医疗保障经费占卫生总费用的比例、65岁及以上人口比例、城镇化率、大专及以上人口比例、平均期望寿命、每千人口卫生技术人员数、人均药品费用、居民消费价格指数作为被解释变量,基于2000—2012年宏观时间序列数据进行相关分析和多元回归分析。结果相关分析结果显示,人均GDP、慢性病患病率、社会医疗保障经费占卫生总费用的比例、65岁及以上人口比例、城镇化率、大专及以上人口比例、平均期望寿命、每千人口卫生技术人员数、人均药品费用与人均卫生费用均呈线性正相关(r值分别为0.995、0.906、0.944、0.985、0.956、0.985、0.949、0.969、0.998,P<0.05),而居民消费价格指数与人均卫生费用无线性相关关系(r=0.435,P=0.138)。去除数量级与多重共线性问题的影响后,多元回归分析结果显示,人均GDP、人均药品费用最终进入回归方程(P<0.05)。结论卫生总费用的影响因素众多繁杂,实证分析结果显示,人均GDP每增加1个单位,人均卫生费用则平均增加0.017个单位;人均药品费用每增加1个单位,人均卫生费用则平均增加1.717个单位。
Objective To investigate influencing factors for the total expenditure on health in China and conduct empirical analysis. Methods On the basis of the review of literature in China and abroad,China＇ s national condition and the influence of economic system,social structure and policy environment on the increase of expenditure on health,we selected per capita expenditure on health as the explaining variable,and took GDP per capita,the prevalence rate of chronic disease,the proportion of social medical insurance fund in total expenditure on health,the proportion of population 65 years old or above,urbanization rate,the proportion of population with education degree of junior college or above,average life expectancy,the number of health workers per thousand population,per capita expenditure on medication and consumer price index as explained variables. Correlation analysis and multivariate regression analysis were conducted based on 2000—2012 macro- economic- time series data. Results Correlation analysis showed that GDP per capita,the prevalence rate of chronic disease,the proportion of social medical insurance fund in total expenditure on health,the proportion of population 65 years old or above,urbanization rate,the proportion of population with education degree of junior college or above,average life expectancy,the number of health workers per thousand people and per capita expenditure on medication had linear positive correlation with per capita expenditure on health（ r values were 0. 995,0. 906,0. 944,0. 985,0. 956,0. 985,0. 949,0. 969,0. 998; P〈0. 05）; but consumer price index had no linear correlation with per capita expenditure on health（ r = 0. 435, P = 0. 138）. After eliminating the influence of order of magnitudes and multicollinearity,the multivariate regression analysis showed that per capita GDP and per capita expenditure entered regression equation（ P〈0. 05）. Conclusion Influencing factors for the total expenditure on health are various. Empirical analysis showed that the increase of 1 unit of per capita GDP leads to the increase of 0. 017 unit of per capita expenditure on health on average; the increase of 1 unit of per capita expenditure on medication leads to 1. 717 units of per capita expenditure on health on average.
出处
《中国全科医学》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第7期824-827,共4页
Chinese General Practice
基金
2014国家自然科学基金资助项目(71473110)
2015中国博士后特别资助基金项目(T80811)
2015江西省社会科学规划项目(15GL04
15SH01)
关键词
费用
医疗
影响因素分析
实证研究
Fees
medical
Root cause analysis
Empirical research
作者简介
通信作者：卢祖洵，430030湖北省武汉市，华中科技大学同济医学院公共卫生学院；E—mail：luac6@163．com
