摘要
文章从空间交互作用的视角,基于投资、物价、利率、汇率和国际石油价格5个传导机制,以动态双边贸易总额权重为连接矩阵,构建了一个包含51个国家的GVAR模型,考察了"一带一路"国家双边贸易与中国经济增长之间的动态关系。结果表明,两者之间存在长期均衡关系;国家间的经济增长、利率、进口和出口贸易4个经济变量存在同周期性;长期来看,该地区双边出口和进口贸易1个标准差的正向冲击可促进中国经济增长1.57%和1.77%,相反,中国经济增长1.2%则可提高该地区双边进出口贸易0.63%和1.02%,但短期内双向冲击的结果均为负;这两种关系在各国间表现出显著的异质性。
This paper constructed a GVAR model containing 51 countries and 8 variables. The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium between the bilateral trade and economic growth,and show synchronism fluctuations among economic growth,interest rate,import and export trade in different countries. In the long term,one standard shock of One Belt And One Road countries' bilateral exports and import trade induce a significant 1. 57% and 1. 77% increase in Chinese economic growth,on the other hand,one standard shock of Chinese economic growth can increase 0. 63% and1. 02% in imports and exports of One Belt And One Road countries. But in the short term,Chinese economic growth has negative effects on the bilateral trade of those countries each other. At last,the relationships show significant heterogeneity among countries.
出处
《世界经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第2期101-110,137,共10页
World Economy Studies
基金
国家社会科学基金重点项目"当前国际资源环境变化背景下加快我国经济发展方式转变的研究"(项目编号:09AZD047)
