摘要
高速公路通常是综合运输通道的重要组成部分,其交通量增长不仅取决于自身发展,而且与通道内其他方式客货需求变化密切相关。因此,准确把握综合运输通道需求总体水平将有助于高速公路交通量预测。本文提出的方法以区域经济发展为基础,首先预测通道总的客货需求,然后根据通道客货方式的运输服务水平预测各方式在通道中的比例,最后利用公路客货需求进行高速公路交通量预测。此外,本文以区域间的客货交流量、运输时间和运价为样本数据建立了用于方式划分的集计logit模型,并通过比较模型值和实际值检验了模型的可用性。
In most cases, expressway is an important part of a multimodal transport corridor, and its traffic volume growth not only depends on its own development, but also relates itself to the passenger and freight demand variation of other modes within the corridor. As a result, it is essential to determine the total demand level of multimodal corridor accurately which will be helpful to expressway traffic volume forecasting. Taking regional economic development as a basis, the proposed method forecasts the total passenger and freight demand in a corridor firstly, calculates the future market shares of different modes based on their own service levels secondly, and completes expressway traffic volume forecasting with highway passenger and freight demand finally. In addition, the aggregate logit model is developed for modal split in terms of passenger and freight volume, transport time and transport cost between different districts. The model availability is also tested by the comparison of model values and actual values.
出处
《综合运输》
2015年第B12期52-65,共14页
China Transportation Review
关键词
综合运输通道需求预测
高速公路交通量预测
方式划分
集计logit模型
multimodal transport corridor demand forecasting
expressway traffic volume forecasting
mode splits
aggregate logit model
作者简介
张康敏，副研究员，研究方向为交通需求预测、交通模型开发和应用、交通运输规划、运输经济效益分析。通讯作者：zhangkm@ict．org．cn
