摘要
采用中国558家规模以上火电企业微观数据,利用基于产出的二次型方向性距离函数,采用不同的估计方法计算了不同企业2005—2010年的CO2影子价格。研究表明:参数线性规划方法所计算出的CO2影子价格均值最高,为1 957.112元/吨;最小二乘法所计算出的CO2影子价格均值最低,为747.634元/吨;校正平均绝对偏差法所计算出的CO2影子价格均值为808.912元/吨;随机前沿法所计算出的CO2影子价格为934.811元/吨。综合所有估计方法,东部地区CO2影子价格均值为1 115.631元/吨,北部地区CO2影子价格均值为1 119.815元/吨,南部地区CO2影子价格均值为1 106.900元/吨,西部地区CO2影子价格均值为1 114.076元/吨。进一步根据所计算出来的CO2影子价格在八大电力集团公司之间进行了分地区分电厂之间的多维度碳交易模拟分析,证明了碳交易可以给火电企业带来较为可观的经济利益;同时也对未来10年八大电力集团公司的CO2影子价格趋势进行了预测分析,进一步论证中国中长期环境与资源保护战略目标实现的可能性。
This paper aims to calculate the shadow price of carbon dioxide in different enterprises from 2005 to 2010 which obtain the microscopic data of 558 thermal power enterprises in China.For this purpose,we uses the output-quadratic diretional distance function ,applying the different estimaion methods. The study shows that the average value of CO2 shadow price calculated by the Parametric Linear Programming(PLP)method is the highest,which is 1 957.112 yuan/ton;the average shadow price of CO2 calculated by the Ordinary Least-Squation(OLS)method is the lowest,which is 747.634 yuan/ton;the average value of CO2 shadow price calculated by the Corrected Mean Absolute Deviation (CMAD)methdod is is 808.912 yuan/ton;the average shadow price of CO2 calculated by the Stochastic Frontier Analysis(SFA)method is 934.811 yuan/ton. Based on all methods,the average shadow price of CO2 in the eastern region is 1 115.631 yuan/ ton,the average shadow price of CO2 in the northern region is 1 119.815 yuan/ ton,the average shadow price of CO2 in the southern region is 1 106.900 yuan/ton,and the average shadow price of CO2 in the western region is 1 114.076 yuan/ton. This paper further makes the simulation analysis of multi-dimensional carbon trading between power plants and regions, using calculated carbon dioxide shadow prices,proving that carbon trading can bring considerable economic benefits to thermal power enterprises;At the same time,we predict the trend of carbon dioxide shadow price in eight power plants in the next ten years, and further demonstrat the possibility of realizing the strategic goal of long-term environmental and resource protection in China.
作者
张宁
刘青君
ZHANG Ning;LIU Qingjun(School of Economics, Jinan University, Guangzhou Guangdong 510632, China)
出处
《北京理工大学学报（社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第1期7-16,共10页
Journal of Beijing Institute of Technology：Social Sciences Edition
基金
国家社科重大项目资助(15ZDA054)
国家自然科学基金资助项目(71822402
91746112)
关键词
影子价格
产出方向距离函数
碳排放权交易
中国火电企业
shadow price
output direction distance function
carbon emissions trading
multi-dimension
作者简介
张宁(1983—),男,博士,教授,博士生导师,E-mail:zn928@naver.com.
