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生态农业规模化经营策略的系统动力学仿真分析 被引量:21

Strategy simulation analysis for the scale operation of ecological agriculture using system dynamics
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摘要 生态农业的规模化经营涉及规模化种植农地的获得、生态养种技术的采纳、生态农产品溢价的实现、环境的可持续性等诸多问题,是一个动态的复杂过程.以银河杜仲生猪规模养殖生态农业系统为例,构建生态农业规模化经营系统动力学模型.基于系统动力学仿真实验方法,对"扩大生态农业系统种植业生产规模、提高生态农业技术水平、完善生态农产品市场"三项生态农业规模化经营策略,设置相应策略参数,通过参数调控实施策略仿真实验.结果表明:扩大种植业生产规模能有效消除规模养殖环境污染,提高农产品竞争力;提高生态农业技术水平,对促进沼气资源的开发利用、降低沼液种植成本具有很好的作用;完善生态农产品市场,是实现生态农产品溢价、提高其社会效益的有效途径,影响着养殖主体开发与流转规模种植农地的决策.最后,基于策略仿真实验结果,针对银河杜仲生态农业系统实际,提出三项具体规模化经营对策. The scale operation of ecological agriculture is a dynamic and complex process,which involves the issues such as how to obtain the needed land for the scale planting,whether to adopt ecological agriculture techniques,how to realize the premium price of green agricultural products,and how to keep the sustainability of agricultural environment,etc.Based on the data gathered from Yinhe Eucommia pig farming agricultural ecological system,a system dynamics model for scale operation of ecological agriculture was built to evaluate the effects of three strategies for ecological agriculture scale operation,which were expanding the planting scale of ecological agriculture system,improving the ecological agriculture technology,and improving the green agricultural product market.Each strategy was simulated by setting and adjusting the corresponding strategy parameters.Simulation results show that the strategy of expanding the planting scale has a very good effect on eliminating the scale breeding pollution.But the decision of transferring farmland depends on strategies of realizing ecological agricultural products premium and improving the technical level of ecological planting to reduce the cost of biogas slurry planting.Finally,according to the simulation results of these three strategies,three specific scale ecological agricultural management countermeasures were proposed based on the actual situation of Yinhe Eucommia pig farming agricultural ecological system.
作者 王翠霞
出处 《系统工程理论与实践》 EI CSSCI CSCD 北大核心 2015年第12期3171-3181,共11页 Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice
基金 国家自然科学基金(71461010 70961001 71261018)
关键词 生态农业 规模化经营 系统动力学 策略仿真 ecological agriculture scale operation system dynamics strategy simulation
作者简介 王翠霞(1968-),女,汉,江西德兴人,副教授,博士,研究方向:管理科学与系统动力学,E-mail:wangcx1995@126.com
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