摘要
运用恒定市场份额模型(CMS模型)对2001年以来中国丝绸出口贸易的波动及其原因进行分析,与之关联的各因素中:国际市场需求变化是引起中国丝绸出口贸易波动的最主要因素;中国丝绸的竞争力效应均为正值,对丝绸出口有促进作用;丝绸产品结构效应除2009—2011年外均为负值,对丝绸出口有阻碍作用;丝绸出口市场结构效应仅在2008—2009年与2011—2014年为正值,但其对总效应的贡献率很小(1%左右),说明中国丝绸出口市场结构需要进一步调整。以上各因素的变化和共同作用导致了中国丝绸出口贸易波动性变化。同样,其他主要丝绸出口国意大利和印度的丝绸出口贸易在2011—2014年均呈现下降趋势,但影响因素不同:意大利丝绸出口贸易减少是国际市场需求减少的负效应引起的;印度丝绸出口贸易减少则是由于国际市场需求减少和丝绸产品缺乏国际竞争力共同引起的。基于上述分析结果,提出了稳定并适度扩大丝绸贸易的国际市场,根据国际市场需求变化调整中国丝绸产品出口结构,以及通过技术创新和品牌营销提升中国丝绸产品的国际竞争力等对策建议。
In this study, the reasons for the fluctuation of China＇s silk export trade since 2001 were analyzed by using CMS model. The research results showed that the change of international si^k market demand was the major factors that influenced the fluctuation of China＇s silk export trade. The China＇s silk product competitiveness effect was positive and had promoting effect on China＇s silk export, while China＇s silk product structural effect was continued to be negative and prevented China＇s silk export except from 2009 to 2011. The China＇s silk export market structural effect was positive during the periods from 2008 to 2009 and from 2011 to 2014, but its contribution rate to the total effects was very small （about 1%）, which showed that China＇s silk export market structure should be further adjusted. Change of vari- ous factors and their interaction resulted in the fluctuation of China＇s silk export trade, Other major silk export countries, including Italy and India, also took on a trend of decrease of silk export trade from 2011 to 2014, but reasons of this decrease in these two countries were different. Decrease of silk export trade in Italy was caused completely by world silk demand decrease, while in India, the decrease of silk export trade was due to the interaction of world silk market demand decrease and international competitiveness deficiency. Based on above analysis results, some counter-measures were put forward, including stabilizing and increasing international market share of silk export to a certain extent, adjusting China＇s silk product structure according to the change of the world market demand, and enhancing the inter- national competitiveness of China＇s silk products through technical innovation and brand marketing.
出处
《蚕业科学》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第6期1094-1101,共8页
ACTA SERICOLOGICA SINICA
作者简介
第一作者信息：霍尚一（1971-），女，博士。E—mail：2847587088@qq．com
