摘要
以甘肃省1949-2012年统计数据为基础数据,分析了甘肃省64 a来耕地面积变化的特点,计算最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数,并运用GM(1,1)模型预测未来15 a耕地压力指数变化.结果表明:1949-2012年的64 a时间里,耕地面积增加了1.67×104hm^2,最小人均耕地面积减少了0.526 hm^2,耕地压力指数减少了0.951.2012年14个地级市耕地压力指数差异大,河西走廊大部分地区、陇东、陇南耕地压力指数低,中部地区耕地压力指数高,甘南地区耕地压力指数最高.预测结果表明,未来15 a甘肃耕地压力指数呈微弱的下降趋势,耕地压力严峻.
The changing features of cultivated land area were analyzed based on 64-a statistical yearbooks,the minimum per capital cultivated land area and pressure index of cultivated land in Gansu Province were calculated,and the tendency of pressure index of cultivated land in the future 15 years was estimated using the GM( 1,1)model. The results showthat cultivated land had increased 1. 67 × 104hm^2,the minimum per capital cultivated land had reduced 0. 526 hm^2,and the pressure index of cultivated land had reduced 0. 951. It is found that the pressure index of cultivated land has difference among the 14 prefecture: lower than the warning line( k = 1) in the most of the Hexi Corridor,east and south of the province,higher in the central sub-region of the province,highest in Gannan Autonomous Prefecture. It is estimated that pressure index of cultivated land will decrease slowly in the future 15 years,showing a serious cultivated land pressure.
出处
《冰川冻土》
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第4期1120-1126,共7页
Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology
基金
国家科技支撑计划项目(2014BAC15B02)
河西学院校长基金项目(XZ2014-08)资助
关键词
耕地
模型
压力指数
甘肃省
cultivated land
model
pressure index of cultivated land
Gansu Province
