摘要
本文选择"初产-旺产期"的天然橡胶为例,选择温度、降水量和降水日数、日照、风速等气象要素,建立相应的模型,定量评价海南橡胶在第一蓬叶生长期的气候适宜性。结果表明:海南岛天然橡胶第一蓬叶生长期的温度适宜度在0.82-0.96之间,变化趋势为-0.008-0.034/10a;降水适宜度在0.22-0.57之间,变化趋势为-0.023-0.042/10a;日照适宜度在0.45-0.82之间,变化趋势为-0.060-0.032/10a;风速适宜度在0.34-0.77之间,变化趋势为-0.033-0.138/10a;气候适宜度在0.41-0.68之间,变化趋势为-0.006-0.044/10a。总体而言,气候变化对海南橡胶第一蓬叶生长期的影响较小,变化趋势不明显。
In this paper, the temperature, precipitation, the number of days with precipitation, solar radiation, wind speed and other meteorological elements were selected to establish a model to assess the climate suitability of rubber plant in growing season within a time period of 10-12 years. The results showed that： temperature suitability of the first canopy leaf growth period rubber plant in Hainan Island was between 0.82-0.96, and change trend was -0.008-0.034/10a; precipitation suitability degree was between 0.22-0.57, and change trend was -0.023-0.042/10a; sunshine suitability degree was 0.45-0.82, and change trend was -0.060-0.032/10a; wind suitability was between 0.34-0.77, change trend was between-0.033-0.138/10a; climate suitability was between 0.41-0.68, and changes was between -0.006-0.044/10a. In general, the impacts of climate change on the rubber plant during the first canopy leaf growth period in Hainan Island was not significant, the trend of change was relatively negligible.
出处
《农业现代化研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第6期1062-1066,共5页
Research of Agricultural Modernization
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41465005
41265007)
海南省自然基金项目(20154172)
关键词
天然橡胶
第一蓬叶生长期
气候适宜性
气候变化
海南岛
rubber plant
the first canopy leaf growth period
climate suitability
climate change
Hainan Island
作者简介
刘少军（1980-），男，湖北天门人，博士，副研究员，主要从事气象灾害风险评估研究，E—mail：cdutlsj@163．com；
房世波（1974-），男，山东即墨人，博士，研究员，主要从事农业气象灾害影响及其评价和气候变化对农业影响及其适应研究，E-mail：sbfang0110@163．com。
