摘要
本文采用 X12季节调整法和 HP 滤波法，对2003年1月至2015年8月我国煤炭价格波动特性进行了分析，研究其长期趋势、周期循环、季节性和不规则等因素的变化情况。结果表明，长期趋势对煤炭价格的影响程度最大，周期循环、季节性和不规则因素影响次之，并且随着时间的推移，季节性和不规则因素快速减弱。从波动规律看，未来2~4个月当前周期可能结束，进入下一个波动周期。综合分析，预计四季度煤价继续承压、维持低位窄幅波动。
The authors took X12 seasonal adjustment models and HP filtering method to an-alyze fluctuation periods of China coal price from January 2003 to August 2015,such as changes of secular trend,cycles,seasonality,irregular factors and other factors. The results showed that secular trend caused the greatest influence on coal price,and then cycles,seasonality and irregu-lar factors,furthermore,with time went by,seasonality and irregular factors rapidly weaken. According to fluctuation patterns,the current cycle would be over after 2 ~4 months and get to the next cycle. In all,the authors predicted coal price to stay under pressure and maintain low narrow fluctuation in the fourth quarter.
出处
《中国煤炭》
北大核心
2015年第11期19-23,共5页
China Coal
关键词
波动周期
X12季节调整法
HP
滤波
长期趋势
fluctuation periods
X12 seasonal adjustment models
HP filtering method
sec-ular trend
作者简介
隋广琳（1984-），男，山东淄博人，中国矿业大学（北京）管理科学与工程博士，研究方向为能源经济、技术经济。
