摘要
使用区域气候模式RegCM4嵌套BCC_CSM1．1（m）全球模式进行了中国地区春季（3～5月）气候回报（1991～2013）和气候预测（2014）试验，分析了BCC_CSM1．1（m）和RegCM4两个模式对中国春季的回报和预测能力。结果表明：RegCM4对气温和降水气候平均态的回报／模拟效果均较BCC_CSM1．1（m）有所改进；对两个模式气温和降水距平的回报能力，通过空间和时间距平相关系数（ACCs和ACCt）、空间和时间距平符号一致率（PCs和PCt）以及趋势异常综合评分（PS）进行了考察，表明两个模式在整体分布上有一定相似的同时，RegCM4能够提供更多的空间分布细节；同样两个模式对2014年春季的预测能力表现出一致性。
Hindcast experiments in 1991 - 2013 and prediction experiment in 2014 are completed by RegCM4, which is nested within BCC _ CSM1.1（ m ） output data, all experiments are conduct from March 1 to Jun 1 for years oi 1991-2014. The hindcast simulation results from BCC _ CSM1.1 （ m ） and RegCM4 are intercompared and evaluated against observation in spring season （ MAM ）. RegCM4 captures the observed climatology better than BCC _ CSM1.1 （ m ） and can provide more detailed local information during the hindcast periods; the simulated inter-annual variability of temperature and precipitation is consistent in general between two models from the results of the spatial and temporal anomaly correlation coefficient （ ACCs and ACCt ） , the predicted consistency of anomaly sign （ PCs and PCt ） and the prediction scores （ PS ） between simulations and observation ; the predictions for spring of 2014 show that the simulated spatial distribution of temperature and precipitation anomaly over China by two models is broadly consistent also.
出处
《山西气象》
2015年第2期11-17,共7页
Shanxi Meteorological Quarterly
关键词
气候模式
回报能力
季节预测
Climate models
Hindcast capabilities
Seasonal prediction
作者简介
骈向文（1962-），女，山西黎城人，助理工程师。
通迅作者：孙卫军
