摘要
目的：探讨乘积季节A RIM A 模型在手足口病月发病率预测的应用价值。方法运用SPSS20．0专家建模器对山东省某市2009年～2014年手足口病月发病率资料建立乘积季节ARI‐M A预测模型，并对2015年的手足口病月发病率情况进行预测。结果乘积季节A RIM A （1，0，0）（1，1，0）12能够较好拟合原始序列，并通过参数估计和残差检验。2015年手足口病月发病率预测值与2014年相比无明显变化，发病高峰仍在5月～7月间。结论专家建模器构建乘积季节A RI‐MA模型简单，所建模型拟合效果好，对手足口病发病率预测有较高的实用价值。
Objective To explorer the application value of multiple seasonal ARIMA in forecasting monthly incidence of HFMD in X city of Shandong .Methods The multiple seasonal ARIMA model was es‐tablished using the Expert Modeler in SPSS 20 .0 based on the monthly incidence of in x city of Shandong province from 2008 to 2014 ,and the monthly incidence in 2015 was predicted by the established model . Results The predictive values of ARIMA（1 ,0 ,0） （1 ,1 ,0）12 coincided well with the true values ,and param‐eter estimation and residual test were meet the statistical requirements .There was no obvious difference between the predictive values of HFMD monthly incidence in 2015 and 2014 ,the peak of HFMD monthly incidence in 2015 would also appear May ,June and July .Conclusion To establish the multiple seasonal ARIMA model using the Expert Modeler was simle ,and the established model could provide a good fit . The application value of multiple seasonal ARIMA in forecasting monthly incidence of HFMD was good .
出处
《山东医学高等专科学校学报》
2015年第4期276-279,F0003,共5页
Journal of Shandong Medical College
作者简介
杨亮（1970-），男，山东省平邑县人，2009年毕业于大理学院，硕士研究生，讲师，现从事流行病学与卫生统计教学与研究工作。
