摘要
目的了解福建省传染病自动预警系统的运行情况,为进一步完善传染病预警工作模式提供依据。方法对2008～2014年福建省传染病自动预警系统生成的预警信号、地区分布、预警病种、响应时间等进行描述性分析。结果2008～2014年,传染病自动预警系统共发出预警信号65 333条,信号响应率为97.85%,疑似率为2.18%,阳性率为0.17%。预警信号响应率呈逐年上升趋势（P〈0.01）。信号响应时间的中位数为1.68h（P25～P75：0.60～6.57h）,预警信号最多3个地市分别为漳州市（11 339条）、福州市（11 280条）和泉州市（9 358条）,单病例预警信号位列前三的疾病依次为麻疹（6 878条）,登革热（472条）和不明原因肺炎（172条）;时空预警信号位列前三的疾病依次为其他感染性腹泻（18 723条）、手足口病（15 917条）和流行性腮腺炎（9 856条）。单病例预警信号在2h内的响应率为50.61%,呈逐年上升趋势（P〈0.01）;时空预警模型在24h内的响应率为85.44%,呈逐年上升趋势（P〈0.01）。结论传染病自动预警系统运行稳定,对及时发现重点病例和早期探测传染病暴发具有重要作用,但预警阳性率低和预警数据来源单一仍需进一步完善优化。
Objective To understand the of application of China Infectious Diseases Automated-alert and Response Sys- tem（CIDARS） ,so as to provide basis for further improvement of CIDARS. Methods Descriptive analysis was used to explore the characteristics of signals,such as regional distribution,disease and response time. Results A total of 65 333 signals were generated during 2008-2014,97.85 % of the signals had been responded, 2.18% of which were suspected, and 0.17% were confirmed outbreaks. The response rates were increasing（ P 〈0.01）. The median response time was 1.68 hours（P25-P75：0. 60-6. 57 h）. Zhangzhou（11 339）,Fuzhou（11 280）and Quanzhou（9 358）were the top three cities which generated the largest signals. Measles（6 878） ,dengue fever（472）and pneumonia of unknown cause（172）were the top three diseases generated by single-case model. Other infectious diarrhea（18 723）,hand-foot-mouth disease（15 917）and mumps （9 856）were the top three diseases generated by the temporal-spatial model. 50.61% signals generated by single-case model were responded in 2 h,and the rate increased year by year（ P 〈0.01）. 85.44% signals generated by the temporal- spatial model were responded in 24 h,and the rate increased year by year（ P 〈0.01）. Conclusion CIDARS are stable and effective. This system plays an important role in surveillance of infectious diseases and prediction of disease outbreaks. But it needs further improvement,as the positive rate of prediction should be improved,and the more data sources should he involved.
出处
《预防医学论坛》
2015年第8期585-589,共5页
Preventive Medicine Tribune
关键词
传染病
自动预警
Infectious disease
Automated-alert and response
作者简介
黄峥强（1984-），男，硕士研究生，医师，研究方向：突发公共卫生事件的监测预警与现场处置
通讯作者：洪荣涛，主任医师，E-mail：hrt@fjcdc．com．cn
