摘要
为寻找优质的农业科普信息多媒体传播结构,提高农牧民接收信息的效率和转化效果,运用系统动力学仿真模拟,通过2个状态变量"农业科技信息资源增加"和"农牧民学习总效果"进一步分析政府对农业科普信息资源的投资变化,以及信息传播途径和农牧民学习转化效果的变化。结果表明:在保持其他变量不变的条件下,将政府每年对农业科技多媒体信息制作的投资上限从2012年的33万元分别提高到方案GOV100的100万元和方案GOV1 000的1000万元,因此从2022—2032年方案GOV1 000比方案GOV100每年约增加120min的农业科技信息资源,同时提高农牧民对科普信息的学习效果5 000 min。方案Base-sim1将政府资金投入上限提高到150万元,同时将农牧民学习转化效率提高到80%,相对于其他方案从2013—2016年每年约增加250min的信息资源,2032年达到约730min/年,同时农牧民学习效果达到90 000min,效果最优。
In order to find a high-quality spread structure of agricultural science information by multimedia,and to improve the efficiency and transforming effect of farmers＇ receiving information,two state variables were set which are the＂agricultural science and technology information increment＂and the＂overall learning outcomes＂,and the changes in government investment,transmission route of information and transforming effect of learning by system dynamics were simulated and analyzed.The results showed that while keeping other variables constant,if the government investment in agricultural information was raised from 330 000 RMB in 2012 to 1million RMB in GOV100 program and 10 million RMB in GOV1000 program,from the years of 2022—2032,the program GOV1000 will increase about 120 minutes of information resources and 5000 minutes of learning outcomes which is more than the program GOV100 annually.Compared to other programs,the base-sim1 program that raises the government investment to 150 million and the conversion rate of learning to 80% will increase about 250 minutes of information resources annually from the years of2013—2016.At the same time,there will be an optimal effect of approximate 730 min of information resources and90 000 min of learning outcomes in the year 2032.
出处
《中国农业大学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第4期288-298,共11页
Journal of China Agricultural University
基金
内蒙古自治区科技厅2013年软科学研究计划项目(20130613)
关键词
农业科技信息
多媒体传播
系统动力学建模
内蒙古
resource of agricultural science and technology information
multimedia communication
system dynamics
Inner Mongolia
作者简介
第一作者：郭婷，讲师，主要从事农牧业经济理论与政策研究，E-mail：hhhtt0758@sina．com
