摘要
利用1996-2009年长株潭地区土地利用变更调查数据及社会经济数据,通过R/S方法,计算出长株潭3市及其所辖区域人均耕地面积的Hurst指数,分析长株潭地区人均耕地面积的变化趋势及其空间格局。结果表明,总体上,1996-2009年,长株潭3市的人均耕地面积呈持续下降趋势,长沙市、株洲市、湘潭市的Hurst指数分别为0.661 1、0.568 9、0.529 4,均大于0.5,说明未来一段时期内,3市的人均耕地面积变化将按惯性运行;分区域来看,1996-2009年,长沙市城区、长沙县、浏阳市、湘乡市、韶山市等5个区域的人均耕地面积下降趋势明显,Hurst指数均大于0.5,未来一段时期内,人均耕地面积还会继续减少;株洲市城区、湘潭市城区、宁乡县、望城县、攸县、炎陵县、醴陵市、茶陵县等8个区域的人均耕地面积下降趋势明显,株洲县、湘潭县的人均耕地面积表现出增加趋势,但Hurst指数均小于0.5,表明在未来一段时期内,宁乡县等8个区域的人均耕地面积将呈上升态势,株洲县和湘潭县的人均耕地面积将呈下降态势;预测趋势与实际情况基本吻合,表明R/S分析方法预测人均耕地面积变化趋势行之有效,可为类似研究提供参考。
Based on the data of land use change and socioeconomic in Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan from 1996 to 2009, the survey has calculated the Hurst index of per capita cultivated area in this region by the R/S method, and analyzed its variation trend of per capita cultivated area, as well as its spatial pattern. The results showed that during 1996 to 2009, there was continuous downtrend of per capita cultivated area in the three citise（Changsha, Zhuzhou and Xiangtan）. According to the Hurst index of the three cities, all above 0.5, it can indicate that the trend will last in the following years. Regionally speaking, the decreasing trend of per capita cultivated area was obvious in Changsha City, Changsha County, Liuyang, Xiangxiang and Shaoshan, their Hurst exponents beyond 0.5, so the trend will continue to reduce. Although per capita cultivated area in Zhuzhou City, Xiangtan City, Ningxiang, Wangcheng, Youxian, Yanling, Liling and Chaling appeared clear trend of descend, as a result of their Hurst index less than 0.5, it will rise in the 8 area. Conversely, that of Zhuzhou County and Xiangtan County showed up a rise trend, but the per capita cultivated area of the two area will reduce in the future. In a word, the prediction was consistent with the actual situation, so the R/S method can be used in the similar research.
出处
《湖南农业科学》
2015年第4期145-148,154,共5页
Hunan Agricultural Sciences
基金
湖南省教育厅科研资助项目(14C0774)
湖南省教育厅科研资助项目(13C537)
湖南省国土资源科技项目(2013-24)
湖南师范大学青年优秀人才培养计划(ET13106)
关键词
R/S
人均耕地面积
HURST指数
长株潭
R/S
per capita cultivated land
Hurst index
Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan
作者简介
黄辉（1991-），男，湖南浏阳市人，硕士研究生，研究方向为土地资源可持续利用。
通讯作者：邓楚雄
