摘要
目的研究济南市极端降水事件对手足口病发病风险的影响,为手足口病的防控工作提供科学依据。方法收集济南市2007年1月1日—2012年12月31日手足口病发病的监测数据及同期济南市逐日气象监测资料,根据整个研究阶段的降水量分布情况,将日降水量〉P90的日期定义为极端降水事件发生日。利用交叉相关确定各气象变量对手足口病发病影响的滞后期,然后采用Poisson回归模型,在控制长期趋势、季节趋势、星期几效应以及气温、相对湿度等混杂因素的基础上,分析极端降水事件对手足口病发病的影响。结果 2007—2012年间济南市共报告手足口病38 340例,发病主要集中在5—8月,7月达到高峰。交叉相关结果显示,极端降水事件对手足口发病的影响滞后6 d时效应最大;Poisson回归结果显示,相对于无降水事件（降水量为0 mm）,极端降水事件造成手足口病发病风险增加24.6%（RR=1.246,95%CI：1.212~1.281）。结论极端降水事件可导致手足口病发病数的增多,应密切监测气象因素,防止手足口病的传播。
Objective To study the effect of extreme precipitation on the risk of hand, foot and mouth disease（HFMD） so as to provide scientific evidence for the prevention and control of HFMD. Methods The time-series data of daily HFMD cases and three climate variables（average temperature, relative humidity and rank of precipitation） from 1 January, 2007 to 31 December,2012 were extracted and prepared for analysis. The days with the precipitation more than the 90 th percentile of all days during the whole period were defined as the days with extreme event of rainfall occurrence. Cross-correlation analysis was performed to determine the appropriate lag period of meteorological factors ＇ effect on HFMD. Poisson regression model was fitted to reveal the effect of extreme precipitation events on HFMD after controlling the long-term and seasonal trend, day of week effect, and the effect of mean air temperature and relative humidity. Results There were 38 340 cases reported from 2007 to 2012 in Ji＇nan, Shandong province and the epidemic of HFMD focused on May to August, peaked in July. Extreme precipitation events could result in 24.6% increase for the risk of HFMD in six days（RR =1.246, 95% CI： 1.212-1.281） compared with zero precipitation after controlling possible confounders. Conclusion Extreme precipitation events may be a risk factor for the epidemic of HFMD in Ji＇nan. It is necessary to take measures to prevent the spread of HFMD while the heavy rain coming.
出处
《环境与健康杂志》
CAS
北大核心
2015年第4期311-314,共4页
Journal of Environment and Health
基金
国家重大科学研究计划(973计划)项目(2012CB955502)
山东省优秀中青年科学家奖励基金(2007BSB02049)
山东省自然科学基金(ZR2013HM052)
作者简介
李洁（1990-），女，硕士研究生，从事气候变化与传染病关系研究。
通讯作者：刘静，E-mail：liujing@sdu．edu．cn。
