摘要
采用中国科学院大气物理研究所开发的嵌套网格空气质量模式系统(NAQPMS),搭建江苏省级区域空气质量数值预报模式系统,并测试了该系统对2013年夏季江苏省PM2.5质量浓度未来24 h预报以及7 d潜势预测的效果。结果表明,该系统成功应用于江苏省的空气质量预报;所有地市的24 h预报效果均在合理范围内(平均分数偏差小于±60%且平均分数误差小于75%);7 d潜势预测效果比24 h预报效果略差,整体能准确把握PM2.5质量浓度的变化趋势。
The numerical air quality forecast model was operationally applied to Jiangsu, named NAQPMS developed by IAP/ CAS. The model performance was examined in terms of 24-hour forecast and 7-day potential forecast for PM2.s daily mean concentration during the summertime of 2013. The results indicate the model effectively predict air quality. The statistical indicators for 24-hour PMzs forecast satisfy the performance criteria of mean fractional bias and mean fractional error. Besides, the model well reproduced the tendency of PM2.s concentrations in 7-day potential forecast most of time.
出处
《中国环境监测》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第2期17-23,共7页
Environmental Monitoring in China
作者简介
朱莉莉（1989-），女，江苏泰州人，硕士。
通讯作者：王自发
