摘要
目的：分析孕产妇死亡率的变化规律,为进一步降低孕产妇死亡率提供参考依据。方法：回顾调查分析2007~2013年山东省孕产妇死亡监测点资料,并进行自回归滑动平均模型死亡率预测。结果：7年孕产妇死亡率依次为20.91/10万、20.85/10万、22.24/10万、21.13/10万、20.59/10万、18.94/10万和16.80/10万,平均为19.53/10万,年平均下降率为3.58%;预测2014年孕产妇死亡率为14.11/10万。前3位死因为产科出血、妊娠合并心脏病、肺栓塞。分娩地点、死亡地点、孕产妇产前检查情况、家庭人均年收入及文化程度对其死亡有影响。评审结果显示,50.82%的死亡孕产妇是可避免的。结论：山东省孕产妇死亡率下降速度减慢,处于平台期。实现孕产妇死亡率进一步降低有赖于提高产科服务能力、提升社会经济水平、提高孕产妇及家属认知与识别能力等综合措施的共同干预。
Objective： To provide reference for further reducing maternal mortality,we analysis the maternal mortality and the main cause of death variation. Method： It analysis retrospectively the monitoring data of maternal mortality in Shandong,and predict mortality by autoregressive moving average model. Result： The maternal mortality rate from 2007 to 2013 was20. 91 /100 000 、20. 85 /100 000、22. 24 /100 000、21. 13 /100 000、20. 59 /100 000、18. 94 /100 000 and 16. 80 /100 000 and the average MMR was 19. 53 /100 000. The annual rate of decline was 3. 58%. Predicting the MMR next year was 14. 11 per 100 000 by the model. Obstetric hemorrhage,pregnancy with heart disease and pulmonary embolism were the first 3 death causes. Delivery place,place of death,antenatal examination,income and education level had influence on their death. The expert evaluation results showed that 50. 82% of maternal deaths were avoided. Conclusion： The rate of decline maternal mortality in Shandong Province is slowing and during the plateau phase. It is suggested to take comprehensive measures as improving the maternal services,increasing family income,and enhancing cognition of pregnant women and their families to further reduce maternal mortality rate.
出处
《现代妇产科进展》
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第2期116-119,共4页
Progress in Obstetrics and Gynecology
关键词
孕产妇
死亡率
死亡相关因素
自回归滑动平均模型
Maternal Mortality Death related factors Autoregressive moving average（ARMA） model
作者简介
徐辉（1987-），女，潍坊医学院公共卫生学院硕士研究生。主要研究方向：妇幼保健。
通讯作者Email：jnliuyan@163．com
