摘要
随着我国宏观经济的快速持续增长,以及财政体制改革的深化,国库收支运行出现了新态势,突出表现为国库库存规模的不断递增,并且波动幅度不断加大,国库库存已经成为影响货币供应量的重要因素,在货币操作中需要密切关注国库资金的运行变化。首先描述了近年来我国国库库存变化的特征,然后基于货币政策中介目标有效性的可测性、可控性和相关性三个标准对现有货币统计口径和加入国库库存后的货币统计口径进行比较。从实证的结果来看,新的货币口径要优于原有的货币口径,因此将国库库存纳入货币中介目标监控体系,才能更好地反映宏观经济金融的实际情况,进一步提高货币政策的有效性。最后提出了将地方国库库存纳入货币统计口径,完善国库集中收付改革,推进地方国库现金管理三个政策建议。
With the rapid growth of China＇s macro economy and the progress of the fiscal reform, national treasury operation appeared new feature. The treasury stock scale and fluctuation amplitude increase continuously. Treasury stock has become an important factor to affect the monetary supply, monetary operation need to pay close attention to treasury stock. This paper first describes the characteristics of China＇s treasury stock change in recent years, and then compare the existing monetary supply and the monetary supply add the treasury stock based on the three standards of intermediate target of mone- tary policy effectiveness--testability, controllability and relevance. From the empirical results, the new monetary supply is superior to the original monetary supply, so bring the treasury stock into the monetary supply can better reflect the actual situation of macro economic and finance, improve the effectiveness of monetary policy. Finally, this paper give three policy suggestions： bring the treasury stock into the statistics of monetary supply, improve the national treasury centralized payment, and promote the local treasury cash management.
出处
《金融理论与实践》
北大核心
2015年第3期85-90,共6页
Financial Theory and Practice
作者简介
徐滔（1969-），男，云南昆明人，本科，经济师，研究方向：金融管理；
张晓斌（1983-），男，云南大理人，硕士研究生，经济师，研究方向：宏观经济。
