摘要
国家自科基金近年在资助基础科学研究方面取得了良好的效果,但也饱受申请量过大造成的管理压力。本文利用系统动力学方法,找出影响基金申请量的关键因素,建立相关模型进行模拟。通过三种检验方法,一定程度证明了模型的有效性。模拟结果表明,限项政策对基金申请量起到了良好的限制效果,国家自科基金的申请量将在2015年达到峰值,约为18.23万项,然后开始缓慢的下降。潜在申请者的数量在2013年达到峰值,约为173.67万人,此后开始逐年下降,并且下降速度较快。未来如果自科基金的经费总量增长,将进一步增加其申请数量,主动降低通过率,也会增加其申请数量。相反,未来如果自科基金的经费总量下降,其申请数量也将下降,主动降提高通过率,也有助于降低其申请数量。
National Natural Science Foundation achieved a lot in basic research field in recent years, but also suffering management stress for the excessive application. This article identified the key factors affect- ing application number based on system dynamic methodology and then building mathematical models for simulation. The validity of the model was proved under different testing methods. Simulation results showed that the limitation policy achieving good results, the application of NSFC will peak in 2015 at about 182,300, and then began to decline slowly. The number of potential applicants peaked in 2013 at about 1.7367 million, and then began declining. In future, the application will increase with the increas- ing of funding and reducing of pass rate. In contrast, it will drop with dropping of funding and increasing of pass rate.
出处
《情报科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2015年第4期75-81,共7页
Information Science
基金
国家软科学研究计划项目(2010GXS1K010)
关键词
系统动力学
模型
申请量预测
自然科学基金
system dynamics
model
application forecast
natural science foundation
作者简介
佟贺丰（1977-），男，辽宁沈阳人，副研究员，主要从事科技政策、系统动力学模型研究．
