摘要
选取河套地区87个气象站1961—2010年逐日降水量资料,采用线性趋势分析、Morlet小波分析等方法,分析河套地区大雨以上降水日数的时空分布特征其及气候变化规律。结果表明：该地区大雨以上降水日数空间分布呈现＂东南多、西北少＂,其中,年均大雨以上降水日数超过5.0 d的区域位于其东南部,包括山西南部、河南西北部和陕西东南部;该地区7月、8月、6—9月及年大雨以上降水日数总体上均呈减少趋势,其日数变化具有明显的阶段性,大雨多发期和少发期交替出现;1985年前后年均大雨以上降水日数在该地区不同区域存在增多和减少的区别;近50 a,该地区7月、8月、6—9月和年大雨以上降水日数变化的周期性显著,其变化既存在明显的2~4 a周期,也存在6~8 a周期。
Based on the daily precipitation data from 87 meteorological stations over Hetao region from 1961 to 2010, we analyze the temporal-spatial distribution characteristics and the climatological variation features of precipitation days with heavy and above rain intensities （PDHR） over Hetao region by using linear trend and Morlet wavelet analysis methods. Results indicate that PDHR is clearly more in the southeast and less in northwest of Hetao. The annual mean PDHR being more than 5.0 days can be found in the southeastern Hetao, including southern Shanxi, northwestern Henan and southeastern Shaanxi. Over Hetao region, the PDHRs in July, August, from June to September and whole year all are in decrease trend in general, and the annual change of the precipitation days has a clear fluctuation in which high and low frequency periods of heavy rain alternately occur. The annual mean PDHR has reduced in some parts but increased in other parts before and after 1985. In the last 50 years, PDHRs in July, August, from June to September and whole year all have clear fluctuating period of 2-4 years, as well as fluctuating period of 6-8 years over Hetao region.
出处
《暴雨灾害》
2014年第4期401-406,共6页
Torrential Rain and Disasters
基金
科技部公益性行业(气象)科研专项"西北地区东部降水异常机理及预测方法研究"(GYHY201306027)
关键词
河套地区
大雨
降水日数
气候变化
Hetao
heavy rain
precipitation day
climatic change
作者简介
第一作者：蔡敏，主要从事气候变化研究。E-mail：caiminerer@163．com
