摘要
为了改善数值预报模式短时临近降水预报能力,采用雷达水汽反演同化方案来提高模式初始水汽场质量.以华南精细预报模式对2013年5月进行了冷启动、热启动和热启动加雷达水汽同化等3个对比试验,并进一步详细分析2013年5月8-9日广东西南部到珠三角地区强降雨过程,探讨雷达反演水汽对短时临近降水预报的影响作用.分析结果显示3个试验结果反映精细模式冷启动不利于1～6 h的降水预报,模式热启动能较好预报前6h的降水,但对随后预报效果不佳.在热启动的基础上,考虑同化雷达反演的水汽后,不仅较好模拟前6h的降水,也可以预报出6～12h的降雨带变化趋势.
A scheme of assimilating radar-retrieved water vapor is adopted to improve the quality of NWP initial field for improvement of the accuracy of short-range precipitation prediction.To reveal the impact of the assimilation of radar-retrieved water vapor on short-term precipitation forecast,three parallel experiments,cold start,hot start and hot start plus the assimilation of radar-retrieved water vapor,are designed to simulate 31 days of May,2013 with a fine numerical model for South China.Furthermore,a case of heavy rain that occurred from 8-9 May 2013 over the region from the southwest of Guangdong province to Pearl River Delta is analyzed in detail.Results show that the cold start experiment is not conducive to precipitation 12 hours ahead; the hot start experiment is able to reproduce well the first 6 hours of precipitation,but badly for subsequent prediction; the experiment of assimilating radar-retrieved water vapor is not only able to simulate well the precipitation 6 hours ahead,but also able to correctly predict the evolution of rain bands 6 ～ 12 hours in advance.
出处
《热带气象学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第5期801-810,共10页
Journal of Tropical Meteorology
基金
国家自然基金项目(41075040
41475102
41075083)
2013年关键技术集成与应用项目(CMAGJ2013M34)
公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201206010)
广东科技计划项目(2012A061400012
2011A032100006)
桂科攻1140004-1共同资助
关键词
雷达反演水汽
前汛期暴雨
短时临近预报
radar-retrieved water vapor
rainfall in annually first rainy season
short-range forecast
作者简介
通讯作者：张诚忠,广西壮族自治区人,男,博士,副研究员,从事热带天气数值业务预报及中小尺度气象学研究.E-mail：cz_zh@grmc.gov.cn
