摘要
社会保障基金收支缺口日益加大,2012年政府欲延迟领取养老金计划而征求意见,从效率的视角来看,这种计划能否顺利实施呢?本文将从社会保障制度的流程视角进行切入,分析如何调整才能使得在公平条件下,制度改革更具效率,也就是个体达到退休年龄时的社会保障缴费率与工资税率的一个均衡问题。笔者采用了生命周期模型,在非分离性偏好和残疾概率条件下,估计个体在退休后生活消费支出的变化状况,并且采用居民家庭消费支出变化幅度以及退休年龄的自我决定的家庭行为来确定生命周期模型的关键性结构参数。我们估计居民家庭消费支出变化幅度取决于家庭成员子女的消费,实证结果显示,改革可以延长弹性退休年龄1年以上,从个体所得税的视角来看,年收入会增加15000元左右,而平均每户等价收入变化平均增加3000元以上。最后笔者给出了动态消费支出、弹性退休激励与社会保障制度分配优化的政策建议。
The revenue and expenditure gap of social security fund is increasingly big. In 2012,Chinese government intended to delay pension payment plan through soliciting opinions. From the perspective of efficiency,can this plan be implemented smoothly? Under fair conditions,this paper starts from the perspective of the flow of the social security system to analyze how to adjust the system to make the reform be more efficient,which is also the equilibrium problem for security contribution rate and wage tax when the individuals reach retirement age. The author uses the life cycle model and in the condition of the probability of inseparability on preferences and disability,the author estimates the change situation of individual life in retirement consumption expenditure,and the author also uses the variation amplitude of household consumption expenditure and the retirement age of self determining family behavior to determine the key structural parameters of the life cycle model. We have estimated the variation amplitude of household consumption expenditure that depends on their children's consumption. The empirical results show that the reform can extend the flexible retirement age for 1year. From the perspective of individual income tax,the income will be increased by 15000 yuan,while the average household income of the average equivalent changes will be increased by more than 3000 yuan. Finally,I give some policy recommendations on a dynamic consumer spending,flexible retirement incentives and the allocation optimization of social security system.
出处
《当代经济科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第6期39-48,123,共10页
Modern Economic Science
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(编号:71073052)
江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目
江苏省"青蓝工程"资助项目
江苏省政府留学奖学金项目
关键词
动态消费支出
弹性退休激励
社会保障制度分配优化
延迟退休计划
Dynamic Consumption Expenditure
Flexible Retirement Incentives
Allocation Optimization of Social Security System
Delaying Retirement Plan
作者简介
作者简介：王增文（1980-）山东省临沂市人，南京财经大学公共管理学院副教授、管理学博士、硕士生导师，研究方向：养老保障与最低生活保障。
