摘要
以1977-2012年中国海赤潮的年发生频率及2001-2012年赤潮的月发生频率数据资料为基础,建立赤潮事件的年发生频率和月发生频率时间序列。赤潮的年发生频率与时间的分段回归拟合效果较好,月频率的季节性最大值在5月(约18.22),随机波动的大小随时间序列逐步增加,波动峰值主要出现在5-7月。利用Holt指数平滑法和Holt-Winter指数平滑法分别对赤潮事件的年发生频率和月发生频率进行预测,结果表明2013-2020年赤潮的年发生频率呈年平均增加1次的缓慢趋势上升,2013-2016年5-7月份为赤潮高发期,峰值出现在5月,基本稳定在25次左右。
The time series of annual and monthly frequencies of red tide occurrence are established respectively on the basis of data analysis in the annual frequency from 1977 to 2012 and monthly frequency from 2001 to 2012 of red tide events in the China Sea. The annual frequency is successfully fitted by piecewise linear regression with 5 segments. The seasonal maximum of monthly frequency is 18.22 which occurrs in May and the stochastic volatility tends to gradual increase with time series, whose peak value is found mainly from May to July each year. The annual and monthly frequencies are both predicted by Holt exponential smoothing and Holt-winter exponential smoothing respectively and it is obtained that the average annual frequency of red tide events will slowly rise by one per year from 2013 to 2020. The results also show that red tide occurrences tend to appear mainly from May to July and reach the peak in May of every year from 2013 to 2016, that is, about 25 times.
出处
《海洋通报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第4期469-474,共6页
Marine Science Bulletin
基金
天津市科技兴海项目(KJXH2011-05)
上海地方高校大文科学术新人培育计划(B5201120003)
关键词
中国海
赤潮
频次
时间序列
China sea
red tide
frequency
time series
作者简介
徐海龙（1980-），男，硕士，讲师，主要从事海洋渔业资源评估研究。电子邮箱：beiji80@163．com。
