摘要
研究了智能开关柜在某无人值守变电站试运行时可靠性增长过程。对设备试运行阶段出现的故障,采取基于故障截尾方式即时纠正的措施,分别记录故障发生的时间及次数,由Laplace检验理论,阐明智能开关柜试运行过程中伴随维修的失效次数服从非齐次Poisson过程;进而用条件分布预测理论对智能开关柜试运行阶段的可靠性进行分析,得到智能开关柜未来第p次故障时间tn+p的预测值和预测区间;最后由试运行时获得的数据,验证条件分布预测理论对试运行阶段智能开关柜可靠性增长预测的准确性。研究结果为及早发现变电站配电系统中的安全隐患和潜在停电事故提供依据,提高了无人值守变电站智能化程度,使整个配电系统更安全、可靠、经济运行。
This paper researched on the reliability growth process of intelligent switchgear in the trial operation phase at an unattended substation. All kinds of failure times and fault numbers were recorded in the cases of failuretruncated. If these failures were corrected immediately,the number of intelligent switchgear failure occurrence accompanied with repair obeys non-homogeneous Poisson process according to Laplace hypothesis-testing theory.Conditional distribution method was applied to the prediction of next failure time of intelligent switchgear;predictor and prediction intervals of the future failure time were given. And comparing the results of prediction with the test data,it indicates that the conditional distribution method can obtain more accurate reliability prediction for intelligent switchgear,which has advantages to the security and stability of power systems. The results provide the basis for the earlier detection of hidden dangers and potential power off accident,improve the intelligent degree of unattended substation and make the distribution system more secure,economic and reliable.
作者
王丽
王景芹
刘建波
孙强
WANG Li;WANG Jingqin;LIU Jianbo;SUN Qiang(College of Engineering and Technology,Tianjin Agricultural University,Tianjin 300384,China;State Key Laboratory of Reliability and Intelligence of Electrical Equipment, Hebei University of Technology,Tianjin 300130,China)
出处
《电器与能效管理技术》
2018年第24期27-31,共5页
Electrical & Energy Management Technology
基金
河北省自然科学基金资助项目(E2016202134)
天津市高等学校本科教学改革与质量建设研究计划项目(171006107C)
关键词
无人值守变电站
智能开关柜
条件分布预测理论
可靠性增长预测
未来故障时间
unattended substation
intelligent switchgear
conditional distribution prediction theory
reliability growth prediction
future failure time
作者简介
王丽(1985-),女,讲师,研究方向为电器可靠性与检测技术;王景芹(1964-),女,教授,博士生导师,研究方向为电器可靠性及电接触;刘建波(1988-),男,讲师,研究方向为轻工过程与装备。
