摘要
本文在垄断竞争条件下的出口供给模型的基础之上,运用2000-2011年147个国别面板数据考察了人民币汇率波动对中国出口贸易的影响,检验结果表明人民币汇率波动风险对出口贸易的影响在汇率改革前后、发达国家及发展中国家之间存在显著差异。继而采用门限回归方法构建非线性面板数据模型,进一步检验人民币汇率波动对中国出口贸易的非对称影响,结论显示:当人民币大幅升值时将阻碍出口,但人民币贬值和升值幅度较小时将促进出口。
On the basis of the export supply model, this article examines the impact of exchange rate fluctuation on China＇ s export trade by the use of panel data of 147 countries during 2000-2011. The results show the influence of the fluctuation risk of the RMB exchange rate on export varies distinctly between developed countries and developing countries as well as before and after China＇ s exchange rate reform. This article then constructs a non-linear panel data model based on the threshold regression method to investigate the nonlinear influence of exchange rate fluctuation on export trade. The findings suggest that export decreases while RMB appreciates to a certain extent, while export increases while RMB depreciates or appreciates fractionally.
出处
《国际贸易问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第6期131-139,共9页
Journal of International Trade
基金
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金重点学科骨干人才资助"跨太平洋伙伴关系协定与亚太经济合作研究"(项目号:NKZX1110)
教育部重点研究基地重大项目"跨太平洋伙伴关系协定研究"(项目号:11JJD810025)
关键词
汇率波动
出口
非线性
门限回归
Exchange rate fluctuation
Export trade
Nonlinear
Threshold regression
作者简介
张伯伟：南开大学经济学院国际经济贸易系300071电子信箱：nankaiseadleaf@163．com；
