摘要
为解决车站客流多因素关联预警问题,通过分析闸机客流、通道客流等因素之间的关联关系,基于系统动力学(SD)原理建立车站客流流动模型,并确定SD方程中的变量及常量;利用Vensim软件分别对站台承载客流、进站客流等建立SD方程,形成基于SD方程的关联预警分析流程。最后,建立站台层仿真模型,预测未来一段时间内站内该区域的客流状况。结果表明,当模型内某变量(如站台承载客流量)出现变化时,可通过及时调整该变量所对应的动力学方程中的其他参量,使车站站台承载客流量保持在其能力和安全范围内。
For the sake of dealing problems in subway station passenger flow associated pre-warning, correlativity among the factors such as passengers in gates, passengers in escalators is analyzed based on SD. Then a station passenger flow model is built. SD equations are formulated for traffic in platform area, traffic entering in the station,traffic taking the train and so on. Based on SD equations, a dynamic associ- ated pre-warning circuit is formed. Finally, a model for simulation verification of proposed associated prewarning method is set up. The passenger flow in the platform region within next period of time is predicted using Vensim software. Studies show that when certain variables are changed, the timely adjustment of other parameters in the model can ensure the system works within the scope of its competence and safety.
出处
《中国安全科学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第4期22-26,共5页
China Safety Science Journal
基金
国家"十二五"科技支撑计划重点项目课题(2011BAG01B02)
关键词
城市轨道交通
车站客流
关联预警
系统动力学(SD)
模型仿真
urban rail transit
station passenger flow
associated pre-warning
system dynamics （SD）
model simulation
作者简介
李曼（1986-），女，河北保定人，博士研究生，主要研究方向为交通安全评价与交通安全测控工程。E—mail：liman66558@126．com．
副教授
教授
