摘要
区域安全的综合性和复杂性已引起众多学者的关注。运用系统动力学(SD)方法,对影响区域安全的基本因素及其相互关系进行了分析,以权威数据为支撑,构建了描述区域安全系统运行状态的动态模型。以东南亚区域安全系统为例进行了仿真实验,勾画出从目前到2030年该区域的安全状况的发展趋势。仿真结果显示所建模型具有实用价值,可为我国的区域安全战略提供有益的决策参考。
The comprehensiveness and complexity of regional security has aroused the attention of many scholars. This paper analyzes the basic factors which have influenced the regional security and their mutual relations based on system dynamic （SD）. Then, a dynamic model supported by author- itative data for describing the running state of the regional security systems has been built. Finally, through the study of the simulation of south-east Asia regional security system, the trend of the secu- rity situation in south-east Asia from now to 2030 has been presented. The results show that the model provides a useful decision-making reference for our country＇s regional security strategy.
出处
《信息工程大学学报》
2014年第2期163-168,共6页
Journal of Information Engineering University
基金
科研基金资助项目(2012JY002-178)
关键词
区域安全系统
系统动力学
建模与仿真
regional security system
system dynamic
modeling and simulation
作者简介
郭闻（1986-），男，硕士生，主要研究方向为管理决策与评估；
戴锋（1958-）,男,教授,博士生导师,主要研究方向为管理决策与评估、管理系统仿真.
