摘要
为了解水库调度中不确定因素对水库长期发电优化调度的影响,以三峡水库为例,根据确定性系数与预报误差的关系对入库径流过程进行随机模拟,应用三角分布和正态分布描述水力不确定性的影响,不同时期选取不同的调度起调水位,运用动态规划法进行水库发电优化调度,将其结果与优化调度和常规调度结果进行比较,得出入库径流的预报误差、出库泄流能力和起调水位的变化等三个不确定性因素对水库长期优化调度的影响较大,而水位库容曲线的不确定性对结果的影响较小。并以确定性系数0.9、变异系数0.1和起调水位145m为例,综合考虑了各项不确定性因素对三峡水库长期发电优化调度的影响。结果表明,多年平均发电量减少0.94×108kW·h,这与三峡水库实际运行情况相符合。
In order to study the influence of uncertain factors on long term reservoir optimal operation, Three Gorges reservoir was selected as a case study. The reservoir inflow series was generated by stochastic simulation based on the relationship between forecasting error and determination coefficient. The triangle and normal distributions were used to describe the effect of hydraulic uncertainties. The different operation initial water levels were selected in each period. Dynamic programming method was used to optimize long-term reservoir operation. The results were compared with optimal and traditional operation schemes. It is shown that inflow forecasting error, discharge capacity and initial water levels have a significant impact on long-term reservoir optimal operation, whereas the storage capacity curve has a small impact. Combing above uncertainties together, in which the determination coefficient, variation coefficient and initial water level were assumed as 0.9, 0.1 and 145 m, respectively, the annual power generation is reduced 0.94 million kW ·h, which conforms to the actual operation of Three Gorges Reservoir.
出处
《水电能源科学》
北大核心
2014年第3期61-65,43,共6页
Water Resources and Power
基金
水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室开放研究基金项目(2012490611)
关键词
三峡水库
长期优化调度
水文水力因素
起调水位
不确定分析
Three Gorges Reservoir
long-term optimal operation
hydrological and hydraulic effects
initial operation water ievel
uncertain analysis
作者简介
作者简介：汪芸（1987-），女，博士研究生，研究方向为水资源规划，E—mail：wyun．1987@gmail．com
