摘要
根据系统动力学原理,构建了我国房地产开发企业资金循环系统的动力学模型;借助土地供给政策调控参数、按揭贷款利率调控参数、房产税收政策调控参数和住房限购政策调控参数,优化了系统外生调控变量,并首次引入跳跃函数和条件函数,对房地产开发企业资金循环系统进行了情景模拟和危机识别,显现出"政策实验室"效果。由现实的初始状态推演结果表明,房地产开发企业面临较大的流动性风险和偿债压力,将被迫或采用民间融资以缓解短期流动性压力,或出售股权以解决累积性偿债压力。同时,不同调控政策在作用力度和作用环节方面都存在明显差异,调控效应从高到低依次为:土地供给政策调控、按揭贷款利率调控、住房限购政策调控和房产税收政策调控。
According to the principle of system dynamics, this paper constructs a dynamical model of corporate fund circulation system of China＇s real estate development enterprises. With the help of such adjusting and controlling parameters as land supply policy, mortgage interest rate, housing tax policy and house purchase quota policy, it has optimized the system exogenous controlling variables and has for the first time introduced the jump function and conditional functions to simulate the sce- nario and identify the debt crisis of the fund circulation system of the real estate development enter- prises, which reveals the effect of ＂policy lab＂ . The derived results from the realistic initial state indicate that the real estate developers, who are faced with greater liquidity risk and debt repayment pressure, would have to choose private financing to alleviate the short-term liquidity pressure, or sell their stock fights to remove the cumulated debt pressure. Meanwhile, the different adjusting and con- trolling policies have significant differences at the strength and links of their functions. The order of the adjusting and controlling effects from high to low is as follows： land supply policy, mortgage in- terest rate, housing purchase quota policy and real estate tax policy.
出处
《当代财经》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第2期50-63,共14页
Contemporary Finance and Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金项目"基于企业资金循环的债权退出风险研究"(71172192)
江西省高校人文社科重点研究基地项目"我国商业银行对信贷风险控制的效应研究--基于中小企业信贷视角"(JD1316)
作者简介
胡援成，江西财经大学资深教授，博士生导师，金融学博士，主要从事国际金融与公司金融研究，联系方式hu—yc@163．com；张朝洋，江西财经大学金融学博士研究生，主要从事宏观经济与货币政策研究。
