摘要
为提高地铁施工灾害警情诊断的精度,将可拓集合理论引入地铁施工灾害预警研究。分析警兆与关键监测指标间的映射关系,确定关键监测指标的指标阈并进行警度划分。在此基础上建立地铁施工灾害的可拓物元模型,通过关联函数计算出综合警度并判定警情的可控程度,根据警度与可控程度2种定量指标的计算结果,实现警情诊断的量化,提高预警措施的针对性与有效性。结果表明,对警情进行多指标的综合诊断,分析警情的变化趋势与可控程度,在理论上将可控度引入预警研究进行应用,在现实中能够为管理者确定应急反应强度,或制定相应的预案提供决策支持。
In order to improve the accuracy of diagnosis of disaster risks in subway construction, this paper adopts extension set theory. Through the analysis of mapping relationship between risk signs and key monitoring indicators, key monitoring indicators thresholds were determined. The risks were classified according to degree of alarm. An extension matter-element model of subway construction disasters was built. Through the correlation functions, the comprehensive alert degrees were calculated. The controllable degrees of risks were determined with the degrees of alarm and controllable degrees, early-warning diagno- sis was quantitized, and the pertinence and effectiveness of early warning measures were improved. The re- suits show that multi-index comprehensive diagnosis of disaster risks and analysis of their tendency and controllable degrees, can provide decision-making support to gency response, or making corresponding contingency plans.
出处
《中国安全科学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第11期163-169,共7页
China Safety Science Journal
基金
国家自然科学基金资助(71173152)
天津市科技支撑计划项目(10ZCKCF01200)
关键词
地铁施工灾害
可拓集合理论
关联函数
警度
可控度
subway construction disaster risk
extension degree of alarm
controllable degree of risk managers determining the intensity of emerset theory
correlation function
作者简介
陈伟珂（1961－），女，浙江宁波人，教授，研究生导师，主要从事公共安全及风险管理的科研及教学工作。E－mail：chenweike7@163．com．
