摘要
针对城市轨道交通火灾事故的频发性和危害性,依据火灾事故相关统计资料,分析导致事故发生的关键要素,构建城市轨道交通火灾事故因果图模型。在此基础上,采用三角模糊因果图分析方法,解决精确获取基本事件概率值的问题,量化基本事件的概率和模糊条件概率。最后,根据火灾事故统计资料及仿真数据,在证据条件发生情况下,确定火灾事故中发生概率最大的事件及导致该事件发生的主要原因。实例结果表明,中间事件中的火源事件发生概率最大,在其相应的基本事件中,乘客乱扔烟头和电线短路需要重点监控,模型的计算结果与实际情况基本相符。
In view of the frequency and perniciousness of urban rail transit fire accidents, key elements leading to urban rail transit fire accidents were analyzed according to the statistics, and then a causal graph model was built. On this basis, triangular fuzzy numbers basing on fuzzy theory were introduced in causality diagram to quantify and obtain the probability of elementary events and fuzzy conditions, which are necessary for obtaining exact probabilities of elementary events. Finally, under the evidence conditions, the maximum probability event and primary cause of event were determined according to fire accident simulation data. This study indicates that maximum probability event in middle event is fire source event, and throwing cigarette butts on ground by passengers and electrical short-circuit need to be monitored strictly in its corresponding elementary event, and that model result conforms to actual condition basically.
出处
《中国安全科学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第11期22-26,共5页
China Safety Science Journal
基金
国家"十二五"科技支撑项目(2011BAG01B02)
关键词
城市轨道交通
火灾事故
因果图
三角模糊数
概率
urban rail transit
fire accident
causality diagram
triangular fuzzy number
probability
作者简介
王艳辉（1974-），男，河北保定人，博士，副教授，主要从事安全技术及工程、交通安全工程理论、智能系统开发与集成等方面的研究。E—mail：zhxywxy@126．com．
