摘要
依据高关水库1971-2011年降雨资料,利用R/S法对其未来变化趋势进行了分析,结果表明:①流域未来降雨量可能呈现持续增加的趋势;②1995年为流域降雨量系列的突变点,对前后两个序列的特征值进行统计分析,均具有明显的差异,已经不符合"一致性"的要求;③流域人类活动日趋频繁,使得流域下垫面条件发生了较大的变化,对水库入库径流量变化有较大的影响。
Based on the rainfall data of Gaoguan Reservoir from 1971 to 2011, the future trend were analyzed by apply- ing R/S method. The results showed that basin future rainfall may be increased continuously; rainfall series in 1995 was a mutation and the two sequences of eigenvalue before and after 1995 had significantly different by means of statistical a- nalysis, which does not meet the requirements of the ＂consistency＂; the basin underlying surface conditions have been affected greatly due to the frequent human activity, which had an effect on reservoir inflow runoff.
出处
《水电与新能源》
2014年第1期53-55,61,共4页
Hydropower and New Energy
关键词
R
S分析
降雨量
变化趋势
高关水库
R/S analysis
rainfall
variation trend
Gaoguan reservoir
作者简介
胡小梅，女，工程师，从事水利工程管理工作。
