摘要
为了研究电网故障的内在动力学机理,以广东电网为例研究了电网故障时间间隔序列的统计分布及非线性特征。首先检验和分析了2000年8月—2013年4月电网故障的统计分布特性,结果表明电网发生故障的时间间隔具有阵发和厚尾现象,近似满足幂律分布。然后应用R/S(rescaled range analysis)和SWV(scaled windowed variance)2种Hurst指数分析方法,求得广东电网故障时间间隔序列的Hurst指数,分别为0.867 01和0.974 14,两者均显著地接近1,结论具有一致性。这揭示了电网发生故障的时间间隔不仅是非随机的,而且具有强的长程正相关性和自相似性。研究故障的时间间隔特征可以为电网进行风险预测和风险评估提供决策依据。
Electric power grid is an artificial complex system for transmitting and interchanging energy, where the blackouts are usually caused by various small faults. To study the internal dynamics mechanism of power grid faults, taking Guangdong power grid as example the statistical distribution and nonlinear characteristic analysis of fault time intervals of power grid is researched. Firstly, the statistical distribution characteristics of power grid faults occurred from Aug. 2000 to Apr. 2013 are verified and analyzed, and analysis results show that the fault time intervals possess the features of intermittency and heavy-tail, and approximately distribute according to power-law distribution. Utilizing two Hurst exponent analysis methods, namely the rescaled range analysis （R/S） method and the scaled windowed variance （SWV） method, the Hurst exponents of fault time intervals of Guangndong power grid are solved, they are 0.867 01 and 0.97414 respectively and evidently close to 1, so they are of consistency. It reveals that the Pault time intervals of power grid are not only non-random, but also possess strong positive correlation and self-similarity. The research on fault time intervals can provide decision foundation for risk prediction and risk assessment of power grid.
出处
《电网技术》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第12期3482-3488,共7页
Power System Technology
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71273093)~~
作者简介
徐立新（1967），女，讲师，博士研究生，研究方向为复杂系统与复杂网络，E—mail：xulixin@scut．edu．cn：
杨建梅（1946），女，教授，博士生导师，博士，研究方向为复杂系统与复杂网络及产业决策，E-mail：fyang@scut．edu．cn；
潮铸（1988），男，工程师，硕士，研究方向为电力系统运行优化与调度技术，E-mail：pier019880130@163com。
