摘要
应用复杂网络理论与风险理论,综合考虑了电网的运行状态和拓扑结构,提出了一种基于贝叶斯网络的条件概率风险指标对电力系统灾难性事故的评估方法。该方法引入了电气介数指标,克服了传统风险评估中事故严重度只考虑电网运行状态而没有考虑电网结构的不足。应用条件概率,弥补了传统风险评估中元件故障概率之间相互独立的缺陷。构建了灾难性事故风险指标体系,表征了系统当前状态的运行风险,刻画了系统由于连锁故障向灾难性演变的趋势。仿真结果证明该方法能够有效地辨识系统存在的风险,为电网安全性评估提供了有效的参考信息。
Applying complex network theory and risk theory and synthetically considering operation conditions of power grid and its topological structure, a method based on conditional probability risk indicators of Bayesian network to assess disastrous accident occurred in power grid is proposed. The concept of electrical betweenness is led in the proposed method to resolve the deficiency in traditional risk assessment that in the severity of fault only operational conditions of power grid are considered and topological structure of power grid is not considered. Applying conditional probability the defect in traditional risk assessment that the fault probabilities of elements are independent one another can be remedied. A risk index system of disastrous accidents is established to characterize operational risk under current status of power grid and depict the developing trend from cascading failure to disastrous accident. Simulation results show that the proposed method can effectively identify the risks existing in power grid, thus reference information that is available for power grid security assessment can be offered.
出处
《电网技术》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第11期3190-3196,共7页
Power System Technology
关键词
电气介数
条件概率
复杂网络
风险评估
灾难性事故
electrical betweenness conditional probability complex network risk assessment disastrous accident
作者简介
赵阳（1989），女，硕士研究生，研究方向为电力系统安全性评估、灾难性事故评估，E-mail：zhaoyang_89@163．com
李华强（1965），男，博士，教授，长期从事电压稳定及优化问题电网稳定与控制研究；
王伊渺（1988），女，硕士研究生，研究方向为电压稳定及其优化问题；
刘沛清（1989），男，硕士研究生，研究方向为电力系统不确定性。
