摘要
在我国利率市场化进程不断加快的背景下,如何建立与利率市场定价机制相适应的货币政策调控机制,成为一个十分现实而又紧迫的研究课题。均衡利率作为实现潜在产出和稳定通胀时的实际利率,是中央银行进行利率调控的一个重要基准。本文在分析我国"利率双轨制"的基础上,构建一个包括家庭、企业、银行和中央银行的四部门DSGE模型,对我国1998年2季度至2012年3季度的均衡利率进行估算,在此基础上,深入分析均衡利率走势与我国宏观经济波动、货币政策运用等之间的内在联系。研究发现:我国的均衡利率变动领先于经济增速、CPI等宏观经济变量,是揭示宏观经济运行的周期性位置、研究和制定货币政策的重要参考。
The accelerating speed of interest rate liberalization in China has imposed an extremely important research topic： how to establish an effective monetary control mechanism that adjusts well to the pricing mechanism of the interest market. Equilibrium interest rate, defined as the interest rate at which the production gap is zero and the inflation is stable, is generally considered to be an important benchmark used by the central bank when making indirect interest control. In this paper, we studied the ＂Dual-track interest rates＂ system of China, and constructed a four-branch DSGE model to estimate the equilibrium interest rate of China. Then, we studied the inherent mechanism between the equilibrium interest rate fluctuation and the other elements, such as the macroeconomic situation, and the monetary policy implementation. The result shows that the equilibrium interest rate is a leading indicator to the macroeconomic variables such as GDP growth and CPI, and an important benchmark for the monetary policy making.
出处
《经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第8期107-119,共13页
Economic Research Journal
关键词
均衡利率
DSGE模型
利率双轨制
实际利率缺口
Equilibrium Interest Rate
DSGE Model
Dual-track Interest Rates
Real Interest Rate Gap
作者简介
贺聪，浙江大学经济学院，中国人民银行杭州中心支行，邮政编码：310027，电子邮箱：hecong_pbc@163．com；
电子邮箱：ybxiang321@163．com，
yixchen@163．com。
