摘要
从1971—2010年陇南市高温天气日数资料入手,分析得出:陇南市山区每年都有高温天气出现,9个气象站平均每年合计出现70.4 d,其中,武都区平均每年出现约21 d,为全市出现高温日数最多的站,高温天气一般出现在5—9月,其峰值主要集中出现在6—8月,该时段高温天气灾损最为严重。目前,受全球气候变暖背景的影响,陇南市山区高温天气日数呈现出明显的增多趋势。因此,结合人口、GDP、耕地比等资料,利用ArcGIS软件,得到高温天气灾害危险性图层,结合承灾体易损性评价、灾害的孕灾背景得到高温天气灾害的风险评估及其区划。结果表明:陇南市高温天气灾害危险性等级白龙江、白水江流域海拔1 100 m以下浅山河谷区、文县东南部、成县中部和康县东南部最高,海拔1 800 m以上高山区高温热海危险性等级最低,大多数年份不会出现高温天气。高温天气灾害风险由高到低、由西北向东南递增,白龙江、白水江干热河谷及康县东南部、文县东南部和成县中部低海拔区为高温天气灾害高风险区;宕昌县西部、礼县西北部、武都区西北部、文县西北部和两当县南部高海拔区为高温天气灾害低风险区。
Based on the analysis of the data of high temperature weather in Longuan City from 1971 to 2010, and the conclusion was as follows, the high temperature weather oceured every year in mountainous area of Longuan City,whlch was up to 70.4 days per year on average for 9 meteorological stations, among them it occured about 21 clays in Wudu Station,which occured more often than any other stations in Longnan City. The high temperature weather oceured between May and September, which mainly concentrated between June and August,the damage in this time quantum was worst.At present, the frequency of high temperature weather increased with global warming.Combined with data about population, GDP,farmland ratio of Longuan City ,etc ,by the utilizing ArcGIS software ,the maps of the possibility of high temperature weather disasters were gained. Then ,the evaluation and division of disk of high temperature weather disasters was obtained combined with the vulnerability assessment of disaster bearing body and the background of weather disasters. From the map,it was concluded that the risk grade of high temperature weather was highest in the Bailong River and Baishui River basin below 1 100 metres, the southeast of Wenxian County,the central Chengxian County and the southeast of Kangxian County ,as it was lowest in high altitude above 1 800 metres in the mountainous area, in most years ,the high temperature weather didn＇t occur. The risk grade of high temperature weather gradually increased in area from high altitude to low altitude,from the northwest to the southeast. Risk of high temperature weather was high in the dry-hot valley of Bailong River and Baishui River,the southeast of Kangxian County and Wenxian County,the central Chengxian County with low altitude,as it was low in the west of Tanehang County,the northwest of Lixian County,Wudu District and Wenxian County,the south of Liangdang County with high altitude.
出处
《现代农业科技》
2013年第15期259-261,共3页
Modern Agricultural Science and Technology
基金
甘肃省气象局项目"陇南山区特色农业气象灾害风险区划与气候区划研究"(2013-20)
作者简介
肖志强（1960-），男，甘肃武都人，高级工程师，从事气候分析预测、农业气象业务服务及研究工作。
