摘要
采用线性趋势回归、Mann—Kendall秩次相关检验、小波分析、Spearman相关分析等多种方法,对1964—2004年间辽河流域福德店至铁岭区间降水、径流时间序列的年际变化特征进行了综合分析。结果表明:①流域降水径流年内分配不均匀,主要集中在5—9月份;②多年年降水量、年径流量和年径流系数总体呈下降趋势,其中年径流量和年径流系数下降趋势明显;③年径流量的年际变化较大,年最大与最小径流量的倍比为11.9倍,21世纪00年代的径流量平均值仅为60年代的24.3%,减少幅度较大;④年降水和年径流量具有明显的阶段性和周期性演变特征,分别存在7a和15a尺度的周期性变化规律。⑤降水量减少和下垫面条件变化是造成福德店至铁岭区间流域径流量下降的重要因素。
Based on the regression analysis, Mann-Kendall rank correlation test, wavelet analysis and Spearman correlation analysis, the time series of precipitation and runoff in the area between Fudedian and Tieling Station in Liaohe River basin from 1964 to 2004 were analyzed. Some conclusions were drawn as fol lows： ①the distribution of annual precipitation and annual runoff were uneven, and mainly concentrated from May to September; ② the time series of annual precipitation, annual runoff and annual runoff coeffi- cient had downward trends, and the trends of annual runoff and annual runoff coefficient were significant; ③ the distribution of annual runoff changes greatly. According to statistics, the ratio of annual maximum to minimum even reached to 11.9 times, and the average runoff in the first decade of 21 century was 24.3% of that in 1960s; ④ the evolution of annual precipitation and annual runoff had obvious stages and cyclical change, and there was a cycle of about 7 years and 15 years; ⑤ the decrease of precipitation and the change of the underlying surface conditions were the key factors influencing the runoff.
出处
《水土保持研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第2期98-102,共5页
Research of Soil and Water Conservation
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(51209096)
水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室开放研究基金(2011490411)
河海大学海岸灾害及防护教育部重点实验室开放研究基金
关键词
径流
变化趋势
影响因素
辽河流域
runoff
variation trend
influence factors
Liaohe River basin
作者简介
胡海英（1983-）．女．湖南临武人．博士，讲师，主要从事水文水资源研究。Email：cthyhu@scut．edu．cn
