摘要
为了对比T639和ECMWF模式预报产品性能的优劣,提高预报员使用其产品的能力,针对2012年5～8月四川盆地降水天气过程,根据不同的影响天气系统,分别对T639和ECMWF细网格模式96h降水预报进行检验对比。结果表明:(1)EC模式对不同系统降水的预报效果都优于T639,预报指示意义大,且两家模式对高原涡和西南涡降水预报效果均优于模式对其它系统降水预报。(2)T639模式对主雨带强度和降水中心强度预报易偏弱,主雨带范围预报易偏小,漏报可能性大;EC模式对主雨带强度、降水中心强度预报也易偏弱,但主雨带范围预报易偏大。(3)T639和EC模式在预报主雨带落区、降水中心位置和实况不一致时,预报易偏西、偏南,雨带的移速偏慢。
In order to make good use of the numerical products of T639 and ECMWF and improve the ability of forecaster, the 96h precipitation verification is carried out in different systems which happened in Sichuan Basin from May to August in 2012. The results show that the effect from ECMWF is better than which from T639 about the precipitation forecasting caused by different system. Both of the two models can predict the heavy rain caused by the Plateau vortex and the Southwest vortex more accurately than which caused by other weather systems. Comparing with the observation, the prediction of the intensity prediction of main rain belt and precipitation centre is weaker in the two models, and the region of main rain belt is smaller in T639 and broader in ECMWF. It indicates the high possibility of missing report in T639. When the main rain belt and the precipitation centre in the two models are inconsistent with the observations, they located to the west and south of the observations and moved slower than observed.
出处
《高原山地气象研究》
2013年第1期80-85,共6页
Plateau and Mountain Meteorology Research
基金
2010行业专项:GYHY201006039强降水诱发山体滑坡
泥石流气象预报警报技术
2012业务建设项目:灾害性天气预报业务系统的改进与升级
关键词
数值模式
降水预报
天气学检验
numerical model
precipitation prediction
synoptic verification
作者简介
肖红茹，高级工程师，主要从事中短期天气预报工作。E-mail：calfdream@163．com
