摘要
针对传统灰色预测GM(1,1)模型在实际应用中存在预测精度不高或精度通不过检验的问题,基于2000～2009年江苏省发电量数据,采用改进的灰色预测GM(1,1)模型预测了江苏省2000～2009年发电量,并与传统灰色预测GM(1,1)模型的预测结果进行比较。结果表明,改进的灰色预测GM(1,1)模型显著提高了原始数据序列的光滑度,预测误差远低于传统灰色预测GM(1,1)模型,进而预测了江苏省2015、2020年的发电量,对江苏省制定电力发展规划具有重要的参考意义。
Aiming at the low prediction accuracy or not passing the test precision m the use of traditional GM（1,1）, based on the data of electric generation during 2000 and 2009, improved GM（1,1）model is applied to predict electric gen- eration in Jiangsu Province. The prediction results obtained by improved GM（1,1）are compared with traditional GM（1, 1）. The results show that improved GM（1,1）model significantly improves smooth degree of the original data sequence; the prediction error is much lower than the traditional GM（1, 1）model. So, the electricity generation in 2015 and 2020 are nredieted, which has reference significance to formulate the olannimz for electric power development in Jiangsu Province.
出处
《水电能源科学》
北大核心
2013年第3期193-195,共3页
Water Resources and Power
基金
江苏省教育厅高校哲学社会科学基金资助项目(09sjb790019
2010SJB790019)
作者简介
陈洁（1977-），女，副教授，研究方向为能源的技术经济分析，E-mail：chenjiefs@126．com
